AI commentary and outlook
A champion already crowned because his scoring never dipped from the first half of the season to the second
- Five rounds remain, including the uncertain Qatar GP, but the title is already decided: Maximo Quiles is champion, and in a simulation of 10,000 seasons from this year's results the leader is never beaten.
- The remaining fight is for 2nd place, where David Almansa is given an 87% chance by the same simulation. Brian Uriarte is at 10% and Alvaro Carpe at 4% for that place.
- The champion's final margin is expected to be around 158 points.
What decided Maximo Quiles's title is that his scoring held level across the whole year, with 170 points in the first half of the season and 181 in the second. He has 10 race wins and 15 podiums. He scored in every one of the 16 races he started, with the British GP the only round he missed.
With the crown settled, the order behind it is still open to whatever the riders and a few unpredictable afternoons decide to do with these percentages.
More detail (numbers for the top 6)
| QUILES | ALMANSA | URIARTE | CARPE | MORELLI | PERRONE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Position · points | P1 351 pts | P2 219 pts | P3 203 pts | P4 191 pts | P5 146 pts | P6 123 pts |
| Race wins / podiums | 10 / 15 | 3 / 8 | 2 / 6 | 0 / 7 | 0 / 4 | 0 / 2 |
| Zero-point races (reason) | 0 | crash 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 1 | retired (no reason in the official record) 1 | crash 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 2 | 0 | crash 2 |
| Average race finish (when finishing) | 2 | 2.9 | 6 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| Rounds missed | 12 (est. 20 pts) | 3, 7, 11 (est. 40 pts) | – | – | – | – |
| Points 1st half / 2nd half | 170 / 181 | 76 / 143 | 72 / 131 | 111 / 80 | 77 / 69 | 60 / 63 |
| Rounds as leader | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Furthest behind the leader | 5 pts (after round 1) | 132 pts (after round 15) | 148 pts (after round 17) | 160 pts (after round 17) | 205 pts (after round 17) | 228 pts (after round 17) |
| Longest run of scoring races | 16 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 6 |
Numbers shown straight from the DB (not through AI). Zero-point reasons as recorded in the official lap analysis. Estimated points for missed rounds = average of the 3 rounds started before the absence x rounds missed.
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB; every number in the text is checked against the DB. Reasons for absences and retirements only where officially recorded. Rewritten after every sprint and race (as of Oct 14, 2026)
