A level scoreboard where the chaser, not the leader, holds the stronger hand

1. Why a dropped result now hurts so muchMarc Marquez trails by just 2 points yet carries a 69% title chance. That comes from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times on this year's results. Dropping 10 points anywhere in the run-in cuts that to 57%. A zero at the Australian GP would leave him at 32%, so a sure finish may be worth more than a risky win. Jorge Martin leads, yet the same simulations give him only 28%. Lose 10 points and that falls to 19%. Luck still weighs heavily: in 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's points leader does not take the title.
2. What each man needs at the Australian GPIf Marc Marquez finishes ahead of Jorge Martin in the race his chance rises to 81%, and even finishing behind him keeps it at 55%. For Martin the picture is sharper: a win lifts him to 51%, but a podium behind his rival only gets him to 35%, so he needs results his main rival cannot match. The risk side is uneven too, with a no-finish chance of 20% for Martin against 11% for Marquez. Marquez also tends to finish above his usual level across 6 races here.
3. A second winner in the mix and a cool, possibly wet weekendMarco Bezzecchi has a 28% win chance, close to the 30% of Marc Marquez. His 64% podium chance is backed by 5 wins this season. Among the manufacturers, Aprilia has the best average finish over the last 5 races at 4.9. Ducati is next at 7.7. A Bezzecchi win changes the title picture only slightly, to 66% for Marquez and 29% for Martin. Rain sits at 26% for the race with air at 15°C, a variable that favours no one in particular.

Simulations count patterns, not the one lap in cold air or the one tyre choice that can rewrite everything, and in the end it is the riders themselves who decide which of these numbers survive Sunday.

From the editors

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:45 PM (Japan time)

A two-rider title fight where the leader has more to lose from a zero than to gain from a win

1. What a dropped result costsThe title chances come from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times. Today they stand at 63% for Manuel Gonzalez and 37% for Izan Guevara. A win at the Australian GP would lift Gonzalez to 79%, but a zero there would cut him to 41%. Losing 10 points anywhere in the remaining rounds drops him to 49%. For Guevara a zero next race means 19%, so for both riders a safe finish is worth more than a risky move.
2. The head-to-head on SundayIf Gonzalez finishes ahead of Guevara in Australia his chance rises to 76%; if he finishes behind him it falls to 47%. For Guevara the same split is 54% against 24%. Gonzalez has 5 race wins this season to Guevara's 4. The model gives Gonzalez 27% and Guevara 19% to win this race, and with both riders carrying a slightly stronger than usual record at this circuit, the track itself does not separate them.
3. Outsiders, weather and the zero riskIvan Ortola at 11% and Senna Agius at 9% are the likeliest riders to take the win away from the two contenders. An Ortola win barely changes the title picture, 62% to 38%, because both contenders lose the same ground. The weather is the bigger wildcard: a 29% rain probability with air at 15°C. This is a high-speed layout with a 900 m straight. The simulation gives Gonzalez a 10% chance of not finishing and Guevara 12%, which is where this championship could really turn.

In 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons the current leader does not take the title, a reminder that one wet lap or one inspired ride can tear up every percentage on this page.

From the editors

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:47 PM (Japan time)

With the title won, the fight for second is Almansa against Uriarte, and the champion is still the race favourite

1. What Almansa needsWith the title settled, the rest of the season simulated 10,000 times from this season's results makes David Almansa the clear favourite for the runner-up spot: he goes into the Australian GP at 87%. Beating Brian Uriarte on Sunday lifts that to 94%; finishing behind him cuts it to 76%. Even a race with no points leaves him at 73%. A win would take him only to 96%, barely more than a podium at 91%, so his existing margin is doing most of the work.
2. Uriarte's narrow path, Carpe's outside shotBrian Uriarte sits at 10% for the runner-up spot. Even a win on Sunday would only take him to 25%, and finishing behind Almansa drops him to 5%. His consistency is his argument: all of his last 5 races ended inside the top 5. Alvaro Carpe is at 4% for the runner-up spot with no win this season, though his 39% podium chance means he can still take points off both riders ahead of him.
3. The race win still runs through the championMaximo Quiles clinched the title at the Indonesian GP with 5 rounds left. In 0 of the 10,000 simulated seasons does the points leader miss out, so luck now only moves the places behind him. He is the favourite again at 55% for the win and 82% for the podium. His 13 wins in the class rank 6th all-time. Four of his last 5 races were wins. David Almansa is next at 19% for the win. This is a high-speed circuit with a 900 m straight, where a 28% rain probability could shuffle the order.

All of these percentages are built on what has already happened, and one wet lap, one bold pass or one small slip can turn them upside down.

From the editors

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:56 PM (Japan time)