A two-point lead the simulations don't trust, so every dropped result now counts double

1. The cost of one bad weekendJorge Martin leads Marc Marquez by 2 points, but the 10,000 simulated runs of the rest of the season from this year's results favour Marquez. They give him a 69% title chance against Martin's 28%. If Marquez loses 10 points anywhere his chance slips to 57%. The same loss would take Martin down to 19%, so a safe finish may be worth more than a gamble for either rider.
2. What each contender needs on SundayThe head-to-head is what matters most: Marquez finishing ahead of Martin lifts his chance to 81%, while finishing behind him leaves it at 55%. Martin beating Marquez would move him only to 43%, and a win on Sunday would bring him to 51%, so he needs the biggest results, not just a good one. Marquez has 6 race wins this season to Martin's 1. Martin's no-finish chance in the race is 20% against Marquez's 11%.
3. Marquez's record here and a third man in the mixMarquez has finished 0.84 places better than his usual level over 6 races at this circuit, while Martin's record here is at his normal level. Marco Bezzecchi has a 28% chance of winning the Australian GP against Marquez's 30%. A Bezzecchi win would leave the title picture at 66% for Marquez and 29% for Martin. Rain probability is 39% for the sprint and 31% for the race, so the weather could reshuffle all of this on a high-speed layout.

In 7,152 of the 10,000 simulated seasons the current points leader does not win, which is a reminder that a wet track, a first-lap tangle or a rider's inspired weekend can tear up every one of these percentages.

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Ditulis oleh AI (Claude) dari angka di database hasil resmi. Setiap angka sudah dicek dengan database. Diperbarui 18 Okt 2026, 10.04 (waktu Jepang)

A two-rider title fight where the leader has more to lose from a zero than to gain from a win

1. What a dropped result costsThe title chances come from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times. Today they stand at 63% for Manuel Gonzalez and 37% for Izan Guevara. A win at the Australian GP would lift Gonzalez to 79%, but a zero there would cut him to 41%. Losing 10 points anywhere in the remaining rounds drops him to 49%. For Guevara a zero next race means 19%, so for both riders a safe finish is worth more than a risky move.
2. The head-to-head on SundayIf Gonzalez finishes ahead of Guevara in Australia his chance rises to 76%; if he finishes behind him it falls to 47%. For Guevara the same split is 54% against 24%. Gonzalez has 5 race wins this season to Guevara's 4. The model gives Gonzalez 27% and Guevara 19% to win this race, and with both riders carrying a slightly stronger than usual record at this circuit, the track itself does not separate them.
3. Outsiders, weather and the zero riskIvan Ortola at 11% and Senna Agius at 9% are the likeliest riders to take the win away from the two contenders. An Ortola win barely changes the title picture, 62% to 38%, because both contenders lose the same ground. The weather is the bigger wildcard: a 29% rain probability with air at 15°C. This is a high-speed layout with a 900 m straight. The simulation gives Gonzalez a 10% chance of not finishing and Guevara 12%, which is where this championship could really turn.

In 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons the current leader does not take the title, a reminder that one wet lap or one inspired ride can tear up every percentage on this page.

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Perkiraan yang dihitung dari data masa lalu. Bukan prediksi pasti hasil balapan. Tentang prediksi kami

Ditulis oleh AI (Claude) dari angka di database hasil resmi. Setiap angka sudah dicek dengan database. Diperbarui 14 Okt 2026, 21.47 (waktu Jepang)

With the title won, the fight for second is Almansa against Uriarte, and the champion is still the race favourite

1. What Almansa needsWith the title settled, the rest of the season simulated 10,000 times from this season's results makes David Almansa the clear favourite for the runner-up spot: he goes into the Australian GP at 87%. Beating Brian Uriarte on Sunday lifts that to 94%; finishing behind him cuts it to 76%. Even a race with no points leaves him at 73%. A win would take him only to 96%, barely more than a podium at 91%, so his existing margin is doing most of the work.
2. Uriarte's narrow path, Carpe's outside shotBrian Uriarte sits at 10% for the runner-up spot. Even a win on Sunday would only take him to 25%, and finishing behind Almansa drops him to 5%. His consistency is his argument: all of his last 5 races ended inside the top 5. Alvaro Carpe is at 4% for the runner-up spot with no win this season, though his 39% podium chance means he can still take points off both riders ahead of him.
3. The race win still runs through the championMaximo Quiles clinched the title at the Indonesian GP with 5 rounds left. In 0 of the 10,000 simulated seasons does the points leader miss out, so luck now only moves the places behind him. He is the favourite again at 55% for the win and 82% for the podium. His 13 wins in the class rank 6th all-time. Four of his last 5 races were wins. David Almansa is next at 19% for the win. This is a high-speed circuit with a 900 m straight, where a 28% rain probability could shuffle the order.

All of these percentages are built on what has already happened, and one wet lap, one bold pass or one small slip can turn them upside down.

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Perkiraan yang dihitung dari data masa lalu. Bukan prediksi pasti hasil balapan. Tentang prediksi kami

Ditulis oleh AI (Claude) dari angka di database hasil resmi. Setiap angka sudah dicek dengan database. Diperbarui 14 Okt 2026, 21.56 (waktu Jepang)