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As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)

Round 18 · Phillip Island

2026 Australian GP

Next race: key points

A level scoreboard where the chaser, not the leader, holds the stronger hand

  1. Why a dropped result now hurts so muchMarc Marquez trails by just 2 points yet carries a 69% title chance. That comes from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times on this year's results. Dropping 10 points anywhere in the run-in cuts that to 57%. A zero at the Australian GP would leave him at 32%, so a sure finish may be worth more than a risky win. Jorge Martin leads, yet the same simulations give him only 28%. Lose 10 points and that falls to 19%. Luck still weighs heavily: in 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's points leader does not take the title.
  2. What each man needs at the Australian GPIf Marc Marquez finishes ahead of Jorge Martin in the race his chance rises to 81%, and even finishing behind him keeps it at 55%. For Martin the picture is sharper: a win lifts him to 51%, but a podium behind his rival only gets him to 35%, so he needs results his main rival cannot match. The risk side is uneven too, with a no-finish chance of 20% for Martin against 11% for Marquez. Marquez also tends to finish above his usual level across 6 races here.
  3. A second winner in the mix and a cool, possibly wet weekendMarco Bezzecchi has a 28% win chance, close to the 30% of Marc Marquez. His 64% podium chance is backed by 5 wins this season. Among the manufacturers, Aprilia has the best average finish over the last 5 races at 4.9. Ducati is next at 7.7. A Bezzecchi win changes the title picture only slightly, to 66% for Marquez and 29% for Martin. Rain sits at 26% for the race with air at 15°C, a variable that favours no one in particular.

Simulations count patterns, not the one lap in cold air or the one tyre choice that can rewrite everything, and in the end it is the riders themselves who decide which of these numbers survive Sunday.

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:45 PM (Japan time)

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MotoGP: what it takes at the Australian GP

MARQUEZtitle chance now 69%
If MARQUEZ finishes ahead of MARTIN in the next race, MARQUEZ's title chance becomes 81% (now 69%); with no points, 49%.

win2nd–3rd4th–5th6th–15thno pointsahead of MARTINbehind MARTIN
83%77%66%60%49%81%55%

MARTINtitle chance now 28%
If MARTIN finishes ahead of MARQUEZ in the next race, MARTIN's title chance becomes 43% (now 28%); with no points, 14%.

win2nd–3rd4th–5th6th–15thno pointsahead of MARQUEZbehind MARQUEZ
51%35%26%21%14%43%18%

How much luck moves it: in 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's leader MARTIN does not win the title; in 1,196 the top 2 (MARTIN, MARQUEZ) both score 0 in at least one race.

The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times; the share of titles counted separately for each result in the next race (sprint results not split).

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

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Lap 2.764 miles · race – laps (–)

✈ 2,719 miles in a straight line from the previous event (Mandalika), flight time at least 6 h. Every rider travels at least this far

No results yet

Australian GP 2026 schedule (UTC)

DateTimeSessionLocal
Thu, Oct 22 22:00 Moto3 Free Practice 1 09:00
Thu, Oct 22 22:50 Moto2 Free Practice 1 09:50
Thu, Oct 22 23:45 MotoGP Free Practice 1 10:45
Fri, Oct 23 02:15 Moto3 Practice 13:15
Fri, Oct 23 03:05 Moto2 Practice 14:05
Fri, Oct 23 04:00 MotoGP Practice 15:00
Fri, Oct 23 21:40 Moto3 Free Practice 2 08:40
Fri, Oct 23 22:25 Moto2 Free Practice 2 09:25
Fri, Oct 23 23:10 MotoGP Free Practice 2 10:10
Fri, Oct 23 23:50 MotoGP Qualifying Q1 10:50
Sat, Oct 24 00:15 MotoGP Qualifying Q2 11:15
Sat, Oct 24 01:45 Moto3 Qualifying Q1 12:45
Sat, Oct 24 02:10 Moto3 Qualifying Q2 13:10
Sat, Oct 24 02:40 Moto2 Qualifying Q1 13:40
Sat, Oct 24 03:05 Moto2 Qualifying Q2 14:05
Sat, Oct 24 04:00 MotoGP Sprint 15:00
Sat, Oct 24 22:40 MotoGP Warm Up 09:40
Sun, Oct 25 00:00 Moto3 Race 11:00
Sun, Oct 25 01:15 Moto2 Race 12:15
Sun, Oct 25 03:00 MotoGP Race 14:00

Schedule

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This weekend: strong and weak tracks (top 10 in the standings)

Of the top 10, Fabio Di Giannantonio does best here (on average 3.0 places better than usual), Alex Marquez does worst (3.6 places worse).

Each finish here compared with the rider's usual finish that season (average without this circuit): how many places better or worse on average. Same layout only; retirements counted separately

Track character: anticlockwise, 7 left / 5 right corners, longest straight 900 m, average speed 183.4 km/h (fast)

1MARTIN As usual about as usual (3 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.8 · On fast tracks: +0.6
Qual.SPRRace
2024MotoGP112
2023MotoGP15
2022MotoGP17
2019Moto22
2018Moto35
2017Moto33
2016Moto36
2015Moto315
2MARQUEZ Slightly strong 0.8 places better than usual (6 finishes · Retired 4 of 10 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.3 · On fast tracks: -0.9
Qual.SPRRace
2024MotoGP221
2023MotoGP715
2022MotoGP22
2019MotoGP31
2018MotoGP1retired
2017MotoGP11
2016MotoGP1crash
2015MotoGP11
2014MotoGP1crash
2013MotoGP2retired
2012Moto22
2011Moto23
2010125cc1
2009125cc9
2008125cc9
3BEZZECCHI Slightly weak 0.9 places worse than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.0 · On fast tracks: +0.5
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP213
2024MotoGP4crash19
2023MotoGP106
2022MotoGP94
2019Moto2crash
2018Moto3crash
2017Moto3crash
4OGURA Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 4.3 places worse than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: -0.1 · On fast tracks: +0.0
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP181713
2024Moto24
2023Moto215
2022Moto211
2019Moto314
5ACOSTA Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 0.2 places worse than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: +2.5 · On fast tracks: -0.1
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP535
2024MotoGP22crash
2023Moto29
2022Moto22
6DI GIANNANTONIO Strong 3.0 places better than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: +0.7
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP1052
2024MotoGP1274
2023MotoGP63
2022MotoGP2020
2019Moto214
2018Moto32
2017Moto3crash
2016Moto3retired
7FERNANDEZ Slightly strong 2.0 places better than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.3 · On fast tracks: +0.2
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP421
2024MotoGP6610
2023MotoGP1416
2022MotoGP2116
2019Moto3retired
8MARQUEZ Weak 3.6 places worse than usual (3 finishes · Retired 1 of 4 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.3 · On fast tracks: -0.9
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP664
2024MotoGP8crash15
2023MotoGP139
2022MotoGP11crash
2019Moto28
2018Moto27
2017Moto26
2015Moto29
2014Moto32
2013Moto34
2012Moto39
9BAGNAIA Strong 2.1 places better than usual (4 finishes · Retired 1 of 5 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.0 · On fast tracks: -0.3
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP1419crash
2024MotoGP543
2023MotoGP32
2022MotoGP33
2019MotoGP154
2018Moto212
2017Moto212
2016Moto3retired
2015Moto3crash
2014Moto311
2013Moto3retired
10ALDEGUER Little data (reference) Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 5.6 places better than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: -1.0 · On fast tracks: -1.0
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP7crash14
2024Moto21
2023Moto23
2022Moto24
Show everyone (22)
11BASTIANINI As usual about as usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.6 · On fast tracks: -1.5
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP20109
2024MotoGP1035
2023MotoGP1210
2022MotoGP155
2019Moto217
2018Moto38
2017Moto35
2016Moto3retired
2015Moto3crash
2014Moto3retired
12MARINI Slightly strong 1.1 places better than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.8 · On fast tracks: -0.6
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP986
2024MotoGP131014
2023MotoGP1812
2022MotoGP76
2019Moto2crash
2018Moto25
2017Moto223
2016Moto216
13BINDER As usual 0.1 places worse than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.3 · On fast tracks: +0.5
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP16crash8
2024MotoGP11crash7
2023MotoGP24
2022MotoGP1610
2019Moto21
2018Moto21
2017Moto22
2016Moto31
2015Moto33
2014Moto315
2013Moto315
2012Moto314
2011125cc21
14QUARTARARO Weak 2.0 places worse than usual (3 finishes · Retired 2 of 5 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.0 · On fast tracks: -1.4
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP1711
2024MotoGP18119
2023MotoGP1614
2022MotoGP5crash
2019MotoGP2crash
2018Moto210
2017Moto2crash
2016Moto312
15MOREIRA First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 4.8 places better than usual in Moto2・250cc On fast tracks: -1.1
Qual.SPRRace
2025Moto23
2024Moto25
2023Moto3retired
2022Moto37
16MORBIDELLI Weak 2.1 places worse than usual (5 finishes · Retired 1 of 6 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.3 · On fast tracks: -0.3
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP171515
2024MotoGP756
2023MotoGP2017
2022MotoGP22retired
2019MotoGP1111
2018MotoGP158
2017Moto23
2016Moto22
2015Moto211
2014Moto213
17ZARCO Slightly strong 1.8 places better than usual (5 finishes · Retired 2 of 7 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.5 · On fast tracks: +0.1
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP1312crash
2024MotoGP14crash12
2023MotoGP51
2022MotoGP68
2019MotoGP1413
2018MotoGP3crash
2017MotoGP34
2016Moto212
2015Moto27
2014Moto2crash
2013Moto2crash
2012Moto25
2011125cc3
2010125ccretired
2009125cc16
18MIR Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 3 of 5 here) · Reference: 4.6 places better than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: -0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.0
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP1211crash
2024MotoGP1713crash
2023MotoGP15retired
2022MotoGP1418
2019MotoGP135
2018Moto22
2017Moto31
2016Moto3retired
2015Moto3crash
19MILLER Strong 2.2 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 2 of 9 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.3
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP34crash
2024MotoGP15crash11
2023MotoGP87
2022MotoGP8crash
2019MotoGP93
2018MotoGP67
2017MotoGP57
2016MotoGP510
2015MotoGP1515
2014Moto31
2013Moto35
2012Moto321
2011125cc23
20RINS Strong 2.3 places better than usual (6 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.6 · On fast tracks: -0.0
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP11137
2024MotoGP91213
2022MotoGP101
2019MotoGP129
2018MotoGP55
2017MotoGP138
2016Moto2crash
2015Moto21
2014Moto33
2013Moto31
2012Moto34
21RAZGATLIOGLU First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: -1.5
22VIÑALES As usual 0.4 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 1 of 8 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.2 · On fast tracks: +0.6
Qual.SPRRace
2024MotoGP3crash8
2023MotoGP911
2022MotoGP1217
2019MotoGP1crash
2018MotoGP21
2017MotoGP23
2016MotoGP133
2015MotoGP66
2014Moto21
2013Moto32
2012Moto3retired
2011125cc8
23LECUONA First MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 1.1 places better than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: -1.0 · On fast tracks: +2.3
Qual.SPRRace
2019Moto27
2018Moto2crash
2017Moto220
2016Moto2crash
24FERNANDEZ Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here) · Reference: 1.0 places worse than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.8
Qual.SPRRace
2024MotoGP16917
2023MotoGP17crash
2022Moto2crash
2019Moto219
2018Moto24
2017Moto217
25ESPARGARO As usual 0.1 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 2 of 9 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.1 · On fast tracks: -0.6
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP8910
2023MotoGP1118
2022MotoGP1311
2019MotoGP1712
2018MotoGP11retired
2017MotoGP69
2016MotoGP35
2015MotoGP98
2014MotoGP9crash
2013Moto21
2012Moto21
2011Moto25
2010125cc2
2009125cc4
2008125cc5
2007125cc11
2006125cc16
26CHANTRA Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 0.4 places worse than usual in Moto2・250cc On fast tracks: -0.5
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP211817
2023Moto27
2022Moto28
2019Moto2crash
27NAKAGAMI Weak 2.8 places worse than usual (3 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.2 · On fast tracks: -0.2
Qual.SPRRace
2024MotoGP211418
2023MotoGP2119
2018MotoGP1414
2017Moto2crash
2016Moto25
2015Moto24
2014Moto211
2013Moto222
2012Moto29
2009125cc18
2008125cccrash
28CRUTCHLOW Strong 2.9 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 2 of 9 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.7 · On fast tracks: -0.1
Qual.SPRRace
2022MotoGP1713
2019MotoGP62
2017MotoGP105
2016MotoGP21
2015MotoGP57
2014MotoGP2crash
2013MotoGP64
2012MotoGP43
2011MotoGP12crash
29FOLGER First MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 0.2 places worse than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: -0.1
Qual.SPRRace
2016Moto26
2015Moto2retired
2014Moto215
2013Moto36
2012Moto311
2009125cc14
30SAVADORI Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here) On fast tracks: -0.7
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP191616
2024MotoGP2015retired
2010125ccretired
31PIRRO Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 2.0 places worse than usual in Moto2・250cc On anticlockwise tracks: +1.9 · On fast tracks: -0.4
Qual.SPRRace
2025MotoGP222018
2012MotoGP1414
2011Moto214
2006125ccretired
2005125ccretired
32ESPARGARO As usual 0.2 places worse than usual (9 finishes · Retired 3 of 12 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.3 · On fast tracks: -0.2
Qual.SPRRace
2024MotoGP19816
2023MotoGP48
2022MotoGP49
2019MotoGP710
2018MotoGP199
2017MotoGP8crash
2016MotoGP4crash
2015MotoGP89
2014MotoGP6retired
2013MotoGP1311
2012MotoGP1210
2011Moto213
2010MotoGP118
2008250cc8
2007250cc14
2006250cc15
2005125cc17

AustraliaLocal riders (Australia)

Earlier results at this Grand Prix (top 10)

2025Senna AgiusMoto2P1
2025Joel KelsoMoto3P2
2024Senna AgiusMoto2P3
2023Joel KelsoMoto3P3
2023Jack MillerMotoGPP7
2022Joel KelsoMoto3P8
2019Jack MillerMotoGPP3
2019Remy GardnerMoto2P6
2018Jack MillerMotoGPP7
2017Jack MillerMotoGPP7
2016Jack MillerMotoGPP10
2015Remy GardnerMoto3P10

All riders from this country →

Winners at this circuitMotoGP

Most wins here: Valentino Rossi (6). Manufacturer: Honda (14)

YearWinnerBikeTeam2nd3rdPoleFastest lapTrack
2025SpainFERNANDEZApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP TeamDI GIANNANTONIOBEZZECCHIQUARTARARODry
2025SPRItalyBEZZECCHIApriliaAprilia RacingFERNANDEZACOSTADry
2024SpainMARQUEZDucatiGresini Racing MotoGPMARTINBAGNAIAMARTINDry
2024SPRSpainMARTINDucatiPrima Pramac RacingMARQUEZBASTIANINIDry
2023FranceZARCODucatiPrima Pramac RacingBAGNAIADI GIANNANTONIOMARTINDry
2022SpainRINSSuzukiTeam SUZUKI ECSTARMARQUEZBAGNAIAMARTINDry
2019SpainMARQUEZHondaRepsol Honda TeamCRUTCHLOWMILLERVIÑALESDry
2018SpainVIÑALESYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPIANNONEDOVIZIOSOMARQUEZDry
2017SpainMARQUEZHondaRepsol Honda TeamROSSIVIÑALESMARQUEZDry
2016United KingdomCRUTCHLOWHondaLCR HondaROSSIVIÑALESMARQUEZDry
▲ 2016: Tyres: Michelin
2015SpainMARQUEZHondaRepsol Honda TeamLORENZOIANNONEMARQUEZDry
2014ItalyROSSIYamahaMovistar Yamaha MotoGPLORENZOSMITHMARQUEZDry
2013SpainLORENZOYamahaYamaha Factory RacingPEDROSAROSSILORENZODry
2012AustraliaSTONERHondaRepsol Honda TeamLORENZOCRUTCHLOWSTONERDry
▲ 2012: Engine: 1000cc
2011AustraliaSTONERHondaRepsol Honda TeamSIMONCELLIDOVIZIOSOSTONERDry
2010AustraliaSTONERDucatiDucati Marlboro TeamLORENZOROSSISTONERDry
2009AustraliaSTONERDucatiDucati Marlboro TeamROSSIPEDROSASTONERDry
▲ 2009: Tyres: Bridgestone
2008AustraliaSTONERDucatiDucati Marlboro TeamROSSIHAYDENSTONERDry
2007AustraliaSTONERDucatiDucati Marlboro TeamCAPIROSSIROSSIPEDROSADry
▲ 2007: Engine: 800cc
2006ItalyMELANDRIHondaFortuna HondaVERMEULENROSSIHAYDENWet
2005ItalyROSSIYamahaGauloises Yamaha TeamHAYDENCHECAHAYDENDry
2004ItalyROSSIYamahaGIBERNAUCAPIROSSIGIBERNAU
2003ItalyROSSIHondaCAPIROSSIHAYDENROSSI
2002ItalyROSSIHondaBARROSUKAWAMCWILLIAMS
▲ 2002: Engine: 990cc
2001500ccItalyROSSIHondaBIAGGICAPIROSSI
2000500ccItalyBIAGGIYamahaCAPIROSSIROSSIMCWILLIAMS
— Layout changed from here —
1999500ccJapanOKADAHondaBIAGGILACONIROBERTS JR
1998500ccAustraliaDOOHANHondaCRAFARCRIVILLEDOOHAN
1997500ccSpainCRIVILLEHondaAOKIABEDOOHAN
1989500ccAustraliaGARDNERHondaRAINEYSARRONSCHWANTZ

Highlighted rows: races won by a rider entered this year · Bike and team as entered in that race's official result · Manufacturers →

Manufacturers at this circuit (MotoGP)

WinsPodiumsBest in last 5 yearsRace top speed 2025
Honda14311354.1
Yamaha6287351.8
Ducati6191355.2
Suzuki141—
Aprilia121354.1
KTM004358.8

Getting there from the airport (estimate)

Airports riders and spectators commonly use, with road distance and driving time to Phillip Island

An estimate from representative airports. Which airport riders and teams actually use, and how they travel, varies.Road distance and time are estimates that vary with traffic (calculated once from OpenStreetMap data).

Spectator guide (getting there) →

Past results at Phillip Island (all of this year's riders)

Race finishes at this circuit (all classes) of every rider who raced in MotoGP this year. Colours show the class; vertical lines mark era changes (tyres, engines) and track layout versions

800ccBridgestone1000ccMichelin
RiderStartsWinsPodiumsAvg05060708091011121314151617181922232425
Marc Marquez10453.599132DQR1R1R12151
Cal Crutchlow9135R34R715213
Maverick Viñales81378R216331R17118
Alex Rins6117.24131R8591137
Johann Zarco7117.616R35RR7124R138112R
Raul Fernandez41110.8R1616101
Francesco Bagnaia533R11RR12124323R
Fabio Di Giannantonio427.2RR21420342
Jorge Martin314.7156352752
Marco Bezzecchi418RRR46193
Jack Miller918.62321511510773R711R
Pedro Acosta15295
Brad Binder47.2211415153121110478
Enea Bastianini47.2RRR581751059
Alex Marquez49.39429678R9154
Luca Marini49.516235R612146
Pol Espargaro910.41611542511R859R12111810
Fabio Quartararo511.312R10RR14911
Franco Morbidelli611.4131123811R17615
Joan Mir511.5RR12518RRR
Ai Ogura113141115413
Fermin Aldeguer11443114
Michele Pirro216RR141418
Lorenzo Savadori216RR16
Takaaki Nakagami317R189221145R141918
Augusto Fernandez21717419RR17
Somkiat Chantra117R8717
Jonas Folger—14NS11615R6
Diogo Moreira—7R53
Iker Lecuona—R20R7
Toprak Razgatlioglu—

Moto3・125ccMoto2・250ccMotoGP・500ccR = DNF · DQ = Disqualified

Scope: official results DB 2005–2025, 28 races of this class tier at this circuit. Starts, wins, podiums and average count this class tier only

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