Why a dropped result now hurts so muchMarc Marquez trails by just 2 points yet carries a 69% title chance. That comes from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times on this year's results. Dropping 10 points anywhere in the run-in cuts that to 57%. A zero at the Australian GP would leave him at 32%, so a sure finish may be worth more than a risky win. Jorge Martin leads, yet the same simulations give him only 28%. Lose 10 points and that falls to 19%. Luck still weighs heavily: in 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's points leader does not take the title.
What each man needs at the Australian GPIf Marc Marquez finishes ahead of Jorge Martin in the race his chance rises to 81%, and even finishing behind him keeps it at 55%. For Martin the picture is sharper: a win lifts him to 51%, but a podium behind his rival only gets him to 35%, so he needs results his main rival cannot match. The risk side is uneven too, with a no-finish chance of 20% for Martin against 11% for Marquez. Marquez also tends to finish above his usual level across 6 races here.
A second winner in the mix and a cool, possibly wet weekendMarco Bezzecchi has a 28% win chance, close to the 30% of Marc Marquez. His 64% podium chance is backed by 5 wins this season. Among the manufacturers, Aprilia has the best average finish over the last 5 races at 4.9. Ducati is next at 7.7. A Bezzecchi win changes the title picture only slightly, to 66% for Marquez and 29% for Martin. Rain sits at 26% for the race with air at 15°C, a variable that favours no one in particular.
Simulations count patterns, not the one lap in cold air or the one tyre choice that can rewrite everything, and in the end it is the riders themselves who decide which of these numbers survive Sunday.
From the editors
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:45 PM (Japan time)
MARQUEZtitle chance now 69% If MARQUEZ finishes ahead of MARTIN in the next race, MARQUEZ's title chance becomes 81% (now 69%); with no points, 49%.
win
2nd–3rd
4th–5th
6th–15th
no points
ahead of MARTIN
behind MARTIN
83%
77%
66%
60%
49%
81%
55%
MARTINtitle chance now 28% If MARTIN finishes ahead of MARQUEZ in the next race, MARTIN's title chance becomes 43% (now 28%); with no points, 14%.
win
2nd–3rd
4th–5th
6th–15th
no points
ahead of MARQUEZ
behind MARQUEZ
51%
35%
26%
21%
14%
43%
18%
How much luck moves it: in 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's leader MARTIN does not win the title; in 1,196 the top 2 (MARTIN, MARQUEZ) both score 0 in at least one race.
The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times; the share of titles counted separately for each result in the next race (sprint results not split).
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
This weekend: strong and weak tracks (top 10 in the standings)
Of the top 10, Fabio Di Giannantonio does best here (on average 3.0 places better than usual), Alex Marquez does worst (3.6 places worse).
Each finish here compared with the rider's usual finish that season (average without this circuit): how many places better or worse on average. Same layout only; retirements counted separately
Track character: anticlockwise, 7 left / 5 right corners, longest straight 900 m, average speed 183.4 km/h (fast)
1MARTINAs usual about as usual (3 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.8 · On fast tracks: +0.6
Qual.
SPR
Race
2024
MotoGP
1
1
2
2023
MotoGP
1
5
2022
MotoGP
1
7
2019
Moto2
2
2018
Moto3
5
2017
Moto3
3
2016
Moto3
6
2015
Moto3
15
2MARQUEZSlightly strong 0.8 places better than usual (6 finishes · Retired 4 of 10 here)On anticlockwise tracks: +1.3 · On fast tracks: -0.9
Qual.
SPR
Race
2024
MotoGP
2
2
1
2023
MotoGP
7
15
2022
MotoGP
2
2
2019
MotoGP
3
1
2018
MotoGP
1
retired
2017
MotoGP
1
1
2016
MotoGP
1
crash
2015
MotoGP
1
1
2014
MotoGP
1
crash
2013
MotoGP
2
retired
2012
Moto2
2
2011
Moto2
3
2010
125cc
1
2009
125cc
9
2008
125cc
9
3BEZZECCHISlightly weak 0.9 places worse than usual (4 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.0 · On fast tracks: +0.5
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
2
1
3
2024
MotoGP
4
crash
19
2023
MotoGP
10
6
2022
MotoGP
9
4
2019
Moto2
crash
2018
Moto3
crash
2017
Moto3
crash
4OGURALittle data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 4.3 places worse than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: -0.1 · On fast tracks: +0.0
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
18
17
13
2024
Moto2
4
2023
Moto2
15
2022
Moto2
11
2019
Moto3
14
5ACOSTALittle data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 0.2 places worse than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: +2.5 · On fast tracks: -0.1
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
5
3
5
2024
MotoGP
22
crash
2023
Moto2
9
2022
Moto2
2
6DI GIANNANTONIOStrong 3.0 places better than usual (4 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: +0.7
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
10
5
2
2024
MotoGP
12
7
4
2023
MotoGP
6
3
2022
MotoGP
20
20
2019
Moto2
14
2018
Moto3
2
2017
Moto3
crash
2016
Moto3
retired
7FERNANDEZSlightly strong 2.0 places better than usual (4 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +1.3 · On fast tracks: +0.2
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
4
2
1
2024
MotoGP
6
6
10
2023
MotoGP
14
16
2022
MotoGP
21
16
2019
Moto3
retired
8MARQUEZWeak 3.6 places worse than usual (3 finishes · Retired 1 of 4 here)On anticlockwise tracks: -1.3 · On fast tracks: -0.9
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
6
6
4
2024
MotoGP
8
crash
15
2023
MotoGP
13
9
2022
MotoGP
11
crash
2019
Moto2
8
2018
Moto2
7
2017
Moto2
6
2015
Moto2
9
2014
Moto3
2
2013
Moto3
4
2012
Moto3
9
9BAGNAIAStrong 2.1 places better than usual (4 finishes · Retired 1 of 5 here)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.0 · On fast tracks: -0.3
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
14
19
crash
2024
MotoGP
5
4
3
2023
MotoGP
3
2
2022
MotoGP
3
3
2019
MotoGP
15
4
2018
Moto2
12
2017
Moto2
12
2016
Moto3
retired
2015
Moto3
crash
2014
Moto3
11
2013
Moto3
retired
10ALDEGUERLittle data (reference) Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 5.6 places better than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: -1.0 · On fast tracks: -1.0
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
7
crash
14
2024
Moto2
1
2023
Moto2
3
2022
Moto2
4
Show everyone (22)11BASTIANINIAs usual about as usual (4 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.6 · On fast tracks: -1.5
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
20
10
9
2024
MotoGP
10
3
5
2023
MotoGP
12
10
2022
MotoGP
15
5
2019
Moto2
17
2018
Moto3
8
2017
Moto3
5
2016
Moto3
retired
2015
Moto3
crash
2014
Moto3
retired
12MARINISlightly strong 1.1 places better than usual (4 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.8 · On fast tracks: -0.6
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
9
8
6
2024
MotoGP
13
10
14
2023
MotoGP
18
12
2022
MotoGP
7
6
2019
Moto2
crash
2018
Moto2
5
2017
Moto2
23
2016
Moto2
16
13BINDERAs usual 0.1 places worse than usual (4 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.3 · On fast tracks: +0.5
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
16
crash
8
2024
MotoGP
11
crash
7
2023
MotoGP
2
4
2022
MotoGP
16
10
2019
Moto2
1
2018
Moto2
1
2017
Moto2
2
2016
Moto3
1
2015
Moto3
3
2014
Moto3
15
2013
Moto3
15
2012
Moto3
14
2011
125cc
21
14QUARTARAROWeak 2.0 places worse than usual (3 finishes · Retired 2 of 5 here)On anticlockwise tracks: -1.0 · On fast tracks: -1.4
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
1
7
11
2024
MotoGP
18
11
9
2023
MotoGP
16
14
2022
MotoGP
5
crash
2019
MotoGP
2
crash
2018
Moto2
10
2017
Moto2
crash
2016
Moto3
12
15MOREIRAFirst MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 4.8 places better than usual in Moto2・250ccOn fast tracks: -1.1
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
Moto2
3
2024
Moto2
5
2023
Moto3
retired
2022
Moto3
7
16MORBIDELLIWeak 2.1 places worse than usual (5 finishes · Retired 1 of 6 here)On anticlockwise tracks: -0.3 · On fast tracks: -0.3
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
17
15
15
2024
MotoGP
7
5
6
2023
MotoGP
20
17
2022
MotoGP
22
retired
2019
MotoGP
11
11
2018
MotoGP
15
8
2017
Moto2
3
2016
Moto2
2
2015
Moto2
11
2014
Moto2
13
17ZARCOSlightly strong 1.8 places better than usual (5 finishes · Retired 2 of 7 here)On anticlockwise tracks: -0.5 · On fast tracks: +0.1
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
13
12
crash
2024
MotoGP
14
crash
12
2023
MotoGP
5
1
2022
MotoGP
6
8
2019
MotoGP
14
13
2018
MotoGP
3
crash
2017
MotoGP
3
4
2016
Moto2
12
2015
Moto2
7
2014
Moto2
crash
2013
Moto2
crash
2012
Moto2
5
2011
125cc
3
2010
125cc
retired
2009
125cc
16
18MIRLittle data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 3 of 5 here) · Reference: 4.6 places better than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: -0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.0
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
12
11
crash
2024
MotoGP
17
13
crash
2023
MotoGP
15
retired
2022
MotoGP
14
18
2019
MotoGP
13
5
2018
Moto2
2
2017
Moto3
1
2016
Moto3
retired
2015
Moto3
crash
19MILLERStrong 2.2 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 2 of 9 here)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.3
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
3
4
crash
2024
MotoGP
15
crash
11
2023
MotoGP
8
7
2022
MotoGP
8
crash
2019
MotoGP
9
3
2018
MotoGP
6
7
2017
MotoGP
5
7
2016
MotoGP
5
10
2015
MotoGP
15
15
2014
Moto3
1
2013
Moto3
5
2012
Moto3
21
2011
125cc
23
20RINSStrong 2.3 places better than usual (6 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +1.6 · On fast tracks: -0.0
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
11
13
7
2024
MotoGP
9
12
13
2022
MotoGP
10
1
2019
MotoGP
12
9
2018
MotoGP
5
5
2017
MotoGP
13
8
2016
Moto2
crash
2015
Moto2
1
2014
Moto3
3
2013
Moto3
1
2012
Moto3
4
21RAZGATLIOGLUFirst MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: -1.522VIÑALESAs usual 0.4 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 1 of 8 here)On anticlockwise tracks: -1.2 · On fast tracks: +0.6
Qual.
SPR
Race
2024
MotoGP
3
crash
8
2023
MotoGP
9
11
2022
MotoGP
12
17
2019
MotoGP
1
crash
2018
MotoGP
2
1
2017
MotoGP
2
3
2016
MotoGP
13
3
2015
MotoGP
6
6
2014
Moto2
1
2013
Moto3
2
2012
Moto3
retired
2011
125cc
8
23LECUONAFirst MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 1.1 places better than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: -1.0 · On fast tracks: +2.3
Qual.
SPR
Race
2019
Moto2
7
2018
Moto2
crash
2017
Moto2
20
2016
Moto2
crash
24FERNANDEZLittle data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here) · Reference: 1.0 places worse than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.8
Qual.
SPR
Race
2024
MotoGP
16
9
17
2023
MotoGP
17
crash
2022
Moto2
crash
2019
Moto2
19
2018
Moto2
4
2017
Moto2
17
25ESPARGAROAs usual 0.1 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 2 of 9 here)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.1 · On fast tracks: -0.6
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
8
9
10
2023
MotoGP
11
18
2022
MotoGP
13
11
2019
MotoGP
17
12
2018
MotoGP
11
retired
2017
MotoGP
6
9
2016
MotoGP
3
5
2015
MotoGP
9
8
2014
MotoGP
9
crash
2013
Moto2
1
2012
Moto2
1
2011
Moto2
5
2010
125cc
2
2009
125cc
4
2008
125cc
5
2007
125cc
11
2006
125cc
16
26CHANTRALittle data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 0.4 places worse than usual in Moto2・250ccOn fast tracks: -0.5
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
21
18
17
2023
Moto2
7
2022
Moto2
8
2019
Moto2
crash
27NAKAGAMIWeak 2.8 places worse than usual (3 finishes)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.2 · On fast tracks: -0.2
Qual.
SPR
Race
2024
MotoGP
21
14
18
2023
MotoGP
21
19
2018
MotoGP
14
14
2017
Moto2
crash
2016
Moto2
5
2015
Moto2
4
2014
Moto2
11
2013
Moto2
22
2012
Moto2
9
2009
125cc
18
2008
125cc
crash
28CRUTCHLOWStrong 2.9 places better than usual (7 finishes · Retired 2 of 9 here)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.7 · On fast tracks: -0.1
Qual.
SPR
Race
2022
MotoGP
17
13
2019
MotoGP
6
2
2017
MotoGP
10
5
2016
MotoGP
2
1
2015
MotoGP
5
7
2014
MotoGP
2
crash
2013
MotoGP
6
4
2012
MotoGP
4
3
2011
MotoGP
12
crash
29FOLGERFirst MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 0.2 places worse than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: -0.1
Qual.
SPR
Race
2016
Moto2
6
2015
Moto2
retired
2014
Moto2
15
2013
Moto3
6
2012
Moto3
11
2009
125cc
14
30SAVADORILittle data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here)On fast tracks: -0.7
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
19
16
16
2024
MotoGP
20
15
retired
2010
125cc
retired
31PIRROLittle data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 2.0 places worse than usual in Moto2・250ccOn anticlockwise tracks: +1.9 · On fast tracks: -0.4
Qual.
SPR
Race
2025
MotoGP
22
20
18
2012
MotoGP
14
14
2011
Moto2
14
2006
125cc
retired
2005
125cc
retired
32ESPARGAROAs usual 0.2 places worse than usual (9 finishes · Retired 3 of 12 here)On anticlockwise tracks: +0.3 · On fast tracks: -0.2
Highlighted rows: races won by a rider entered this year · Bike and team as entered in that race's official result · Manufacturers →
Manufacturers at this circuit (MotoGP)
Wins
Podiums
Best in last 5 years
Race top speed 2025
Honda
14
31
1
354.1
Yamaha
6
28
7
351.8
Ducati
6
19
1
355.2
Suzuki
1
4
1
—
Aprilia
1
2
1
354.1
KTM
0
0
4
358.8
Getting there from the airport (estimate)
Airports riders and spectators commonly use, with road distance and driving time to Phillip Island
MELMelbourne Airport168 kmabout 2h22 by car
AVVMelbourne Avalon International Airport196 kmabout 2h44 by car
An estimate from representative airports. Which airport riders and teams actually use, and how they travel, varies.Road distance and time are estimates that vary with traffic (calculated once from OpenStreetMap data).
Past results at Phillip Island (all of this year's riders)
Race finishes at this circuit (all classes) of every rider who raced in MotoGP this year. Colours show the class; vertical lines mark era changes (tyres, engines) and track layout versions