As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)

Round 18 · Phillip Island

2026 Australian GP Moto3

Next race: key points

With the title won, the fight for second is Almansa against Uriarte, and the champion is still the race favourite

What Almansa needsWith the title settled, the rest of the season simulated 10,000 times from this season's results makes David Almansa the clear favourite for the runner-up spot: he goes into the Australian GP at 87%. Beating Brian Uriarte on Sunday lifts that to 94%; finishing behind him cuts it to 76%. Even a race with no points leaves him at 73%. A win would take him only to 96%, barely more than a podium at 91%, so his existing margin is doing most of the work.
Uriarte's narrow path, Carpe's outside shotBrian Uriarte sits at 10% for the runner-up spot. Even a win on Sunday would only take him to 25%, and finishing behind Almansa drops him to 5%. His consistency is his argument: all of his last 5 races ended inside the top 5. Alvaro Carpe is at 4% for the runner-up spot with no win this season, though his 39% podium chance means he can still take points off both riders ahead of him.
The race win still runs through the championMaximo Quiles clinched the title at the Indonesian GP with 5 rounds left. In 0 of the 10,000 simulated seasons does the points leader miss out, so luck now only moves the places behind him. He is the favourite again at 55% for the win and 82% for the podium. His 13 wins in the class rank 6th all-time. Four of his last 5 races were wins. David Almansa is next at 19% for the win. This is a high-speed circuit with a 900 m straight, where a 28% rain probability could shuffle the order.

All of these percentages are built on what has already happened, and one wet lap, one bold pass or one small slip can turn them upside down.

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:56 PM (Japan time)

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Moto3 champion decided

Maximo Quiles

Clinched at round 17, Indonesian GP (5 rounds left).10 race wins and 15 podiums this season.Expected final margin: 158 points (simulation median).

Moto3 fight for 2nd: what it takes at the Australian GP

ALMANSAchance of finishing 2nd 87%
If ALMANSA finishes ahead of URIARTE in the next race, ALMANSA's chance of ending 2nd becomes 94% (now 87%); with no points, 73%.

win	2nd–3rd	4th–5th	6th–15th	no points	ahead of URIARTE	behind URIARTE
96%	91%	85%	81%	73%	94%	76%

URIARTEchance of finishing 2nd 10%
If URIARTE finishes ahead of ALMANSA in the next race, URIARTE's chance of ending 2nd becomes 19% (now 10%); with no points, 4%.

win	2nd–3rd	4th–5th	6th–15th	no points	ahead of ALMANSA	behind ALMANSA
25%	14%	9%	6%	4%	19%	5%

The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times; the share of titles counted separately for each result in the next race (sprint results not split).

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

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Lap 2.764 miles · race – laps (–)

✈ 2,719 miles in a straight line from the previous event (Mandalika), flight time at least 6 h. Every rider travels at least this far

No results yet

Australian GP 2026 schedule (UTC)

Date	Time	Session	Local
Thu, Oct 22	22:00	Moto3 Free Practice 1	09:00
Thu, Oct 22	22:50	Moto2 Free Practice 1	09:50
Thu, Oct 22	23:45	MotoGP Free Practice 1	10:45
Fri, Oct 23	02:15	Moto3 Practice	13:15
Fri, Oct 23	03:05	Moto2 Practice	14:05
Fri, Oct 23	04:00	MotoGP Practice	15:00
Fri, Oct 23	21:40	Moto3 Free Practice 2	08:40
Fri, Oct 23	22:25	Moto2 Free Practice 2	09:25
Fri, Oct 23	23:10	MotoGP Free Practice 2	10:10
Fri, Oct 23	23:50	MotoGP Qualifying Q1	10:50
Sat, Oct 24	00:15	MotoGP Qualifying Q2	11:15
Sat, Oct 24	01:45	Moto3 Qualifying Q1	12:45
Sat, Oct 24	02:10	Moto3 Qualifying Q2	13:10
Sat, Oct 24	02:40	Moto2 Qualifying Q1	13:40
Sat, Oct 24	03:05	Moto2 Qualifying Q2	14:05
Sat, Oct 24	04:00	MotoGP Sprint	15:00
Sat, Oct 24	22:40	MotoGP Warm Up	09:40
Sun, Oct 25	00:00	Moto3 Race	11:00
Sun, Oct 25	01:15	Moto2 Race	12:15
Sun, Oct 25	03:00	MotoGP Race	14:00

Schedule

This weekend: strong and weak tracks (top 10 in the standings)

Of the top 10, Matteo Bertelle does best here (on average 1.2 places better than usual).

Each finish here compared with the rider's usual finish that season (average without this circuit): how many places better or worse on average. Same layout only; retirements counted separately

Track character: anticlockwise, 7 left / 5 right corners, longest straight 900 m, average speed 183.4 km/h (fast)

1QUILES Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.9

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	9		5

2ALMANSA Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.1 · On fast tracks: -0.0

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	18		9
2024	Moto3	20		technical

3URIARTE Little data (reference) Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.2 · On fast tracks: -1.5

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	19		19

4CARPE Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.1 · On fast tracks: +2.3

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	6		3

5MORELLI Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.4 · On fast tracks: -1.3

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	12		18

6PERRONE Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.1 · On fast tracks: +0.1

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	22		20

7PRATAMA First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: +1.9

8BERTELLE Slightly strong 1.2 places better than usual (3 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.0 · On fast tracks: +0.3

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto3	5	10
2024	Moto3	18	14
2023	Moto3	5	9

9DANISH First MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: -0.0

10SALMELA First MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: +0.1

Show everyone (22)

11CRUCES First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On anticlockwise tracks: +3.5 · On fast tracks: -1.3

12PINI Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.8 · On fast tracks: +0.8

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	10		12

13ESTEBAN Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.3 · On fast tracks: -0.6

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	7		4
2024	Moto3	21		16

14FERNANDEZ Strong 2.1 places better than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.8 · On fast tracks: +0.7

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto3	8	6
2024	Moto3	3	3
2023	Moto3	9	5
2022	Moto3	15	18

15O'GORMAN First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: -0.8

16KELSO Strong 5.4 places better than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.4 · On fast tracks: +0.6

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto3	1	2
2024	Moto3	7	11
2023	Moto3	2	3
2022	Moto3	14	8

17O'SHEA Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.8 · On fast tracks: +0.7

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	20		16
2024	Moto3	25		19

18MUÑOZ Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 1 of 3 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.0 · On fast tracks: +0.6

		Qual.	Race
2024	Moto3	4	5
2023	Moto3	14	crash
2022	Moto3	11	11

19RIOS First MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: +0.2

20YAMANAKA Weak 4.1 places worse than usual (3 finishes · Retired 1 of 4 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -2.1 · On fast tracks: -0.1

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto3	16	22
2024	Moto3	11	6
2023	Moto3	16	15
2022	Moto3	20	crash

21OGDEN Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 1 of 3 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.0 · On fast tracks: +0.4

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto3	21	14
2024	Moto3	5	22
2022	Moto3	19	crash

22GONZALEZ First MotoGP・500cc start here

23URIARTE First MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.0 · On fast tracks: +1.1

24BUCHANAN Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +2.5 · On fast tracks: +0.4

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	17		11

25RAMMERSTORFER First MotoGP・500cc start here As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: -0.5

26MITANI First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: +1.1

27MOODLEY Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.2 · On fast tracks: +0.0

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3	24		21

28SINGHAPONG First MotoGP・500cc start here

29CARRARO Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 1 of 4 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.9 · On fast tracks: -0.4

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto3	15	13
2024	Moto3	19	crash
2023	Moto3	22	11
2022	Moto3	27	22

30OGIWARA First MotoGP・500cc start here

31ABRUZZO First MotoGP・500cc start here

32GUTIERREZ First MotoGP・500cc start here

Local riders (Australia)

MotoGPJack MillerP19 · 28 pts
Moto2Senna AgiusP6 · 165 pts
Moto2Jacob RoulstoneP33 · 0 pts
Moto3Joel KelsoP16 · 67 pts

Earlier results at this Grand Prix (top 10)

2025	Senna Agius	Moto2	P1
2025	Joel Kelso	Moto3	P2
2024	Senna Agius	Moto2	P3
2023	Joel Kelso	Moto3	P3
2023	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P7
2022	Joel Kelso	Moto3	P8
2019	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P3
2019	Remy Gardner	Moto2	P6
2018	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P7
2017	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P7
2016	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P10
2015	Remy Gardner	Moto3	P10

All riders from this country →

Winners at this circuitMoto3

Most wins here: Sandro Cortese (2). Manufacturer: Honda (9)

Year	Winner	Bike	Team	2nd	3rd	Pole	Track
2025	RUEDA	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	KELSO	CARPE	KELSO	Dry
2024	ALONSO	CFMOTO	CFMOTO Aspar Team	HOLGADO	FERNANDEZ	ORTOLA	Dry
▲ 2024: Tyres: Pirelli
2023	ÖNCÜ	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	SASAKI	KELSO	SASAKI	Wet
2022	GUEVARA	GASGAS	Gaviota GASGAS Aspar Team	ÖNCÜ	GARCIA	SASAKI	Dry
2019	DALLA PORTA	Honda	Leopard Racing	RAMIREZ	ARENAS	RAMIREZ	Dry
2018	ARENAS	KTM	Angel Nieto Team Moto3	DI GIANNANTONIO	VIETTI	MARTIN	Dry
2017	MIR	Honda	Leopard Racing	LOI	MARTIN	MARTIN	Dry
2016	BINDER	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	LOCATELLI	CANET	BINDER	Dry
2015	OLIVEIRA	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	VAZQUEZ	BINDER	MCPHEE	Dry
2014	MILLER	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	MARQUEZ	RINS	MARQUEZ	Dry
2013	RINS	KTM	Estrella Galicia 0,0	VIÑALES	SALOM	SALOM	Dry
2012	CORTESE	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	OLIVEIRA	SISSIS	CORTESE	Dry
▲ 2012: Tyres: Dunlop
2011125cc	CORTESE	Aprilia	Intact-Racing Team Germany	SALOM	ZARCO	ZARCO
2010125cc	MARQUEZ	Derbi	Red Bull Ajo Motorsport	ESPARGARO	TEROL	MARQUEZ	Dry
▲ 2010: Tyres: Dunlop
2009125cc	SIMON	Aprilia	Bancaja Aspar Team 125cc	SMITH	CORTESE	ESPARGARO	Dry
2008125cc	DI MEGLIO	Derbi	Ajo Motorsport	BRADL	TALMACSI	DI MEGLIO	Dry
2007125cc	PESEK	Derbi	Valsir Seedorf Derbi	OLIVE	FAUBEL	PASINI	Dry
2006125cc	BAUTISTA	Aprilia	Master - MVA Aspar Team	KALLIO	PASINI	KALLIO	Dry
2005125cc	LÜTHI	Honda	Elit Grand Prix	KOYAMA	SIMONCELLI	LÜTHI	Dry
2004125cc	DOVIZIOSO	Honda*		LORENZO	STONER	LOCATELLI
2003125cc	BALLERINI			AZUMA	JENKNER	PERUGINI
2002125cc	POGGIALI			CECCHINELLO	NIETO	POGGIALI
2001125cc	UI			POGGIALI	Antonio Elias	POGGIALI
2000125cc	AZUMA	Honda		UI	UEDA	LOCATELLI
— Layout changed from here —
1999125cc	MELANDRI	Honda		CECCHINELLO	UI	UEDA
1998125cc	AZUMA	Honda		MANAKO	MELANDRI	MELANDRI
1997125cc	UEDA	Honda		SAKATA	MANAKO	SAKATA
1990125cc	CAPIROSSI	Honda		CASANOVA	ROMBONI	SPAAN

Highlighted rows: races won by a rider entered this year · Bike and team as entered in that race's official result · * the race's official result has no bike recorded; taken from the rider's other official results that season and class (one make only) · Manufacturers →

Manufacturers at this circuit (Moto3)

	Wins	Podiums	Best in last 5 years	Race top speed 2025
Honda	9	26	1	258
KTM	8	20	1	258.6
Aprilia	3	13	—	—
Derbi	3	9	—	—
GASGAS	1	3	1	—
CFMOTO	1	2	1	—
Husqvarna	0	1	2	—
Suter Honda	0	1	—	—
Kalex KTM	0	0	19	—

Spectator guide (getting there) →

Past results at Phillip Island (all of this year's riders)

Race finishes at this circuit (all classes) of every rider who raced in Moto3 this year. Colours show the class; vertical lines mark era changes (tyres, engines) and track layout versions

							Pirelli
Rider	Starts	Wins	Podiums	Avg	22	23	24	25
Joel Kelso	4		2	6	8	3	11	2
Alvaro Carpe	1		1	3				3
Adrian Fernandez	4		1	8	18	5	3	6
Maximo Quiles	1			5				5
David Muñoz	3			8	11	R	5
David Almansa	2			9			R	9
Joel Esteban	2			10			16	4
Matteo Bertelle	3			11		9	14	10
Cormac Buchanan	1			11				11
Guido Pini	1			12				12
Ryusei Yamanaka	4			14.3	R	15	6	22
Nicola Carraro	4			15.3	22	11	R	13
Eddie O'Shea	2			17.5			19	16
Scott Ogden	3			18	R		22	14
Marco Morelli	1			18				18
Brian Uriarte	1			19				19
Valentin Perrone	1			20				20
Ruche Moodley	1			21				21
Veda Pratama	—
Casey O'Gorman	—
Rico Salmela	—
Adrian Cruces	—
Hakim Danish	—
Jesus Rios	—
Zen Mitani	—
Leo Rammerstorfer	—
Marcos Uriarte	—
Eduardo Gutierrez	—
Kiattisak Singhapong	—
Leonardo Abruzzo	—
David Gonzalez	—
Ryota Ogiwara	—

Moto3・125ccMoto2・250ccMotoGP・500ccR = DNF · DQ = Disqualified

Scope: official results DB 2022–2025, 28 races of this class tier at this circuit. Starts, wins, podiums and average count this class tier only