What Almansa needsWith the title settled, the rest of the season simulated 10,000 times from this season's results makes David Almansa the clear favourite for the runner-up spot: he goes into the Australian GP at 87%. Beating Brian Uriarte on Sunday lifts that to 94%; finishing behind him cuts it to 76%. Even a race with no points leaves him at 73%. A win would take him only to 96%, barely more than a podium at 91%, so his existing margin is doing most of the work.
Uriarte's narrow path, Carpe's outside shotBrian Uriarte sits at 10% for the runner-up spot. Even a win on Sunday would only take him to 25%, and finishing behind Almansa drops him to 5%. His consistency is his argument: all of his last 5 races ended inside the top 5. Alvaro Carpe is at 4% for the runner-up spot with no win this season, though his 39% podium chance means he can still take points off both riders ahead of him.
The race win still runs through the championMaximo Quiles clinched the title at the Indonesian GP with 5 rounds left. In 0 of the 10,000 simulated seasons does the points leader miss out, so luck now only moves the places behind him. He is the favourite again at 55% for the win and 82% for the podium. His 13 wins in the class rank 6th all-time. Four of his last 5 races were wins. David Almansa is next at 19% for the win. This is a high-speed circuit with a 900 m straight, where a 28% rain probability could shuffle the order.
All of these percentages are built on what has already happened, and one wet lap, one bold pass or one small slip can turn them upside down.
