As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)

Round 18 · Phillip Island

2026 Australian GP Moto2

Next race: key points

A two-rider title fight where the leader has more to lose from a zero than to gain from a win

What a dropped result costsThe title chances come from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times. Today they stand at 63% for Manuel Gonzalez and 37% for Izan Guevara. A win at the Australian GP would lift Gonzalez to 79%, but a zero there would cut him to 41%. Losing 10 points anywhere in the remaining rounds drops him to 49%. For Guevara a zero next race means 19%, so for both riders a safe finish is worth more than a risky move.
The head-to-head on SundayIf Gonzalez finishes ahead of Guevara in Australia his chance rises to 76%; if he finishes behind him it falls to 47%. For Guevara the same split is 54% against 24%. Gonzalez has 5 race wins this season to Guevara's 4. The model gives Gonzalez 27% and Guevara 19% to win this race, and with both riders carrying a slightly stronger than usual record at this circuit, the track itself does not separate them.
Outsiders, weather and the zero riskIvan Ortola at 11% and Senna Agius at 9% are the likeliest riders to take the win away from the two contenders. An Ortola win barely changes the title picture, 62% to 38%, because both contenders lose the same ground. The weather is the bigger wildcard: a 29% rain probability with air at 15°C. This is a high-speed layout with a 900 m straight. The simulation gives Gonzalez a 10% chance of not finishing and Guevara 12%, which is where this championship could really turn.

In 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons the current leader does not take the title, a reminder that one wet lap or one inspired ride can tear up every percentage on this page.

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:47 PM (Japan time)

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Moto2: what it takes at the Australian GP

GONZALEZtitle chance now 63%
If GONZALEZ finishes ahead of GUEVARA in the next race, GONZALEZ's title chance becomes 76% (now 63%); with no points, 41%.

win	2nd–3rd	4th–5th	6th–15th	no points	ahead of GUEVARA	behind GUEVARA
79%	68%	59%	51%	41%	76%	47%

GUEVARAtitle chance now 37%
If GUEVARA finishes ahead of GONZALEZ in the next race, GUEVARA's title chance becomes 54% (now 37%); with no points, 19%.

win	2nd–3rd	4th–5th	6th–15th	no points	ahead of GONZALEZ	behind GONZALEZ
57%	41%	32%	29%	19%	54%	24%

How much luck moves it: in 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's leader GONZALEZ does not win the title; in 1,226 the top 2 (GONZALEZ, GUEVARA) both score 0 in at least one race.

The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times; the share of titles counted separately for each result in the next race (sprint results not split).

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

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Lap 2.764 miles · race – laps (–)

✈ 2,719 miles in a straight line from the previous event (Mandalika), flight time at least 6 h. Every rider travels at least this far

No results yet

Australian GP 2026 schedule (UTC)

Date	Time	Session	Local
Thu, Oct 22	22:00	Moto3 Free Practice 1	09:00
Thu, Oct 22	22:50	Moto2 Free Practice 1	09:50
Thu, Oct 22	23:45	MotoGP Free Practice 1	10:45
Fri, Oct 23	02:15	Moto3 Practice	13:15
Fri, Oct 23	03:05	Moto2 Practice	14:05
Fri, Oct 23	04:00	MotoGP Practice	15:00
Fri, Oct 23	21:40	Moto3 Free Practice 2	08:40
Fri, Oct 23	22:25	Moto2 Free Practice 2	09:25
Fri, Oct 23	23:10	MotoGP Free Practice 2	10:10
Fri, Oct 23	23:50	MotoGP Qualifying Q1	10:50
Sat, Oct 24	00:15	MotoGP Qualifying Q2	11:15
Sat, Oct 24	01:45	Moto3 Qualifying Q1	12:45
Sat, Oct 24	02:10	Moto3 Qualifying Q2	13:10
Sat, Oct 24	02:40	Moto2 Qualifying Q1	13:40
Sat, Oct 24	03:05	Moto2 Qualifying Q2	14:05
Sat, Oct 24	04:00	MotoGP Sprint	15:00
Sat, Oct 24	22:40	MotoGP Warm Up	09:40
Sun, Oct 25	00:00	Moto3 Race	11:00
Sun, Oct 25	01:15	Moto2 Race	12:15
Sun, Oct 25	03:00	MotoGP Race	14:00

Schedule

This weekend: strong and weak tracks (top 10 in the standings)

Of the top 10, Manuel Gonzalez does best here (on average 1.1 places better than usual).

Each finish here compared with the rider's usual finish that season (average without this circuit): how many places better or worse on average. Same layout only; retirements counted separately

Track character: anticlockwise, 7 left / 5 right corners, longest straight 900 m, average speed 183.4 km/h (fast)

1GONZALEZ Slightly strong 1.1 places better than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.3 · On fast tracks: +0.3

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	3	7
2024	Moto2	6	6
2023	Moto2	10	13
2022	Moto2	7	5

2GUEVARA Slightly strong 0.9 places better than usual (3 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.5 · On fast tracks: +0.5

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	14	16
2024	Moto2	17	16
2023	Moto2	23	6
2022	Moto3		1

3ORTOLA Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 0.9 places worse than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +1.1 · On fast tracks: -1.3

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	17	18
2024	Moto3		retired
2023	Moto3		crash
2022	Moto3		13

4HOLGADO Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 1.1 places worse than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: -0.7 · On fast tracks: -0.1

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	5	4
2024	Moto3		2
2023	Moto3		13
2022	Moto3		crash

5ALONSO Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 1.4 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +1.4 · On fast tracks: -2.7

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	6	2
2024	Moto3		1
2023	Moto3		retired

6AGIUS Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +2.0 · On fast tracks: +0.0

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto2	2		1
2024	Moto2	13		3

7SALAC Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 2 of 3 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.2 · On fast tracks: +0.1

		Qual.	Race
2024	Moto2	22	14
2023	Moto2	18	crash
2022	Moto2	10	crash
2019	Moto3		retired

8VIETTI Little data (reference) Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 2 of 3 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -2.6 · On fast tracks: -0.2

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	25	19
2023	Moto2	13	crash
2022	Moto2	6	crash
2019	Moto3		crash
2018	Moto3		3

9LOPEZ Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 2 of 4 here) · Reference: 0.8 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +2.7 · On fast tracks: +0.1

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	20	15
2024	Moto2	3	crash
2023	Moto2	3	retired
2022	Moto2	3	1
2019	Moto3		13
2018	Moto3		11

10MUÑOZ Little data (reference) Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -2.5 · On fast tracks: -0.0

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto2	16		21

Show everyone (24)

11ARBOLINO As usual 0.7 places better than usual (3 finishes · Retired 1 of 4 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +0.5 · On fast tracks: +0.3

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	12	17
2024	Moto2	11	8
2023	Moto2	8	1
2022	Moto2	4	crash
2019	Moto3		9
2018	Moto3		crash
2017	Moto3		18

12VEIJER Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 4.0 places worse than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +0.0 · On fast tracks: -1.4

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	15	12
2024	Moto3		18
2023	Moto3		4

13ESCRIG As usual 0.4 places worse than usual (3 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.7 · On fast tracks: +0.8

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	22	23
2024	Moto2	23	17
2023	Moto2	29	19

14BALTUS Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 2 of 4 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.0 · On fast tracks: -0.9

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	10	6
2024	Moto2	5	7
2023	Moto2	15	crash
2022	Moto2	25	crash

15ÖNCÜ Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) · Reference: 5.9 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +1.4 · On fast tracks: +0.3

		Qual.	Race
2024	Moto2	20	21
2023	Moto3		1
2022	Moto3		2

16ROBERTS Strong 2.7 places better than usual (4 finishes · Retired 1 of 5 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.4 · On fast tracks: +0.5

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	18	13
2023	Moto2	4	5
2022	Moto2	15	technical
2019	Moto2	21	16
2018	Moto2	23	18

17RUEDA First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 2.9 places worse than usual in Moto3・125cc On fast tracks: -0.8

		Race
2025	Moto3	1
2024	Moto3	9
2023	Moto3	18

18HUERTAS Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.9 · On fast tracks: +0.5

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto2	13		11

19LUNETTA First MotoGP・500cc start here Strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 1.9 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On fast tracks: +2.6

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3			7
2024	Moto3			8

20SASAKI Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here) · Reference: 3.6 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +1.0 · On fast tracks: +0.1

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	7	10
2024	Moto2	14	crash
2023	Moto3		2
2022	Moto3		4
2019	Moto3		7
2018	Moto3		10
2017	Moto3		7

21FERRANDEZ First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) On fast tracks: +1.7

22CANET As usual 0.6 places worse than usual (4 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: -1.2 · On fast tracks: +0.6

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	8	9
2024	Moto2	2	2
2023	Moto2	2	2
2022	Moto2	5	9
2019	Moto3		crash
2018	Moto3		6
2017	Moto3		retired
2016	Moto3		3

23FURUSATO First MotoGP・500cc start here Slightly weak on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) · Reference: 2.5 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On fast tracks: -1.1

		Race
2025	Moto3	8
2024	Moto3	7
2023	Moto3	7
2022	Moto3	crash

24VAN DEN GOORBERGH Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 2 of 3 here) On anticlockwise tracks: -0.1 · On fast tracks: -0.8

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	21	22
2024	Moto2	18	crash
2023	Moto2	17	crash

25GARCIA Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here) · Reference: 0.7 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: -0.5 · On fast tracks: +0.6

		Qual.	Race
2024	Moto2	16	9
2023	Moto2	7	crash
2022	Moto3		3
2019	Moto3		crash

26PIQUERAS First MotoGP・500cc start here · Reference: 8.0 places worse than usual in Moto3・125cc

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3			17
2024	Moto3			10

27SURYO AJI Little data (reference) Strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes) On anticlockwise tracks: +2.7 · On fast tracks: +1.7

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	19	20
2024	Moto2	19	15
2023	Moto3		crash
2022	Moto3		crash

28RAMIREZ Slightly strong 1.7 places better than usual (3 finishes · Retired 1 of 4 here) On anticlockwise tracks: +1.6 · On fast tracks: -0.3

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	23	retired
2024	Moto2	4	10
2023	Moto2	11	10
2022	Moto2	22	17
2019	Moto3		2
2018	Moto3		crash
2017	Moto3		21
2016	Moto3		7

29ZURUTUZA First MotoGP・500cc start here · Reference: 0.1 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2024	Moto3			17

30ORRADRE First MotoGP・500cc start here

31NAVARRO Little data (reference) As usual on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (2 finishes · Retired 3 of 5 here) · Reference: 3.3 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +0.5 · On fast tracks: -1.0

		Qual.	Race
2025	Moto2	24	24
2022	Moto2	24	crash
2019	Moto2	1	4
2018	Moto2	12	crash
2017	Moto2	18	crash
2016	Moto3		crash
2015	Moto3		4
2014	Moto3		12

32FOGGIA Little data (reference) Slightly strong on this type of track (anticlockwise・fast) (1 finishes · Retired 1 of 2 here) · Reference: 2.2 places worse than usual in Moto3・125cc On anticlockwise tracks: +3.5 · On fast tracks: +0.1

		Qual.	Race
2024	Moto2	12	crash
2023	Moto2	21	17
2022	Moto3		9
2019	Moto3		11
2018	Moto3		crash

33ROULSTONE First MotoGP・500cc start here · Reference: 0.2 places better than usual in Moto3・125cc

		Qual.	SPR	Race
2025	Moto3			crash
2024	Moto3			13

34PAWELEC First MotoGP・500cc start here

Local riders (Australia)

MotoGPJack MillerP19 · 28 pts
Moto2Senna AgiusP6 · 165 pts
Moto2Jacob RoulstoneP33 · 0 pts
Moto3Joel KelsoP16 · 67 pts

Earlier results at this Grand Prix (top 10)

2025	Senna Agius	Moto2	P1
2025	Joel Kelso	Moto3	P2
2024	Senna Agius	Moto2	P3
2023	Joel Kelso	Moto3	P3
2023	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P7
2022	Joel Kelso	Moto3	P8
2019	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P3
2019	Remy Gardner	Moto2	P6
2018	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P7
2017	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P7
2016	Jack Miller	MotoGP	P10
2015	Remy Gardner	Moto3	P10

All riders from this country →

Winners at this circuitMoto2

Most wins here: Brad Binder (2). Manufacturer: Kalex (7)

Year	Winner	Bike	Team	2nd	3rd	Pole	Track
2025	AGIUS	Kalex	Liqui Moly Dynavolt Intact GP	ALONSO	MOREIRA	MOREIRA	Dry
2024	ALDEGUER	Boscoscuro	Sync SpeedUp	CANET	AGIUS	ALDEGUER	Dry
▲ 2024: Tyres: Pirelli
2023	ARBOLINO	Kalex	Elf Marc VDS Racing Team	CANET	ALDEGUER	ALDEGUER	Wet
2022	LOPEZ	Boscoscuro	MB Conveyors Speed Up	ACOSTA	DIXON	ALDEGUER	Dry
2019	BINDER	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	MARTIN	LÜTHI	NAVARRO	Dry
2018	BINDER	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	MIR	VIERGE	PASINI	Dry
2017	OLIVEIRA	KTM	Red Bull KTM Ajo	BINDER	MORBIDELLI	PASINI	Dry
2016	LÜTHI	Kalex	Garage Plus Interwetten	MORBIDELLI	CORTESE	LÜTHI	Dry
2015	RINS	Kalex	Paginas Amarillas HP 40	LOWES	BALDASSARRI	RINS	Dry
2014	VIÑALES	Kalex	Pons HP 40	LÜTHI	RABAT	RABAT	Dry
2013	ESPARGARO	Kalex	Tuenti HP 40	LÜTHI	TORRES	ESPARGARO	Dry
2012	ESPARGARO	Kalex	Pons 40 HP Tuenti	MARQUEZ	REDDING	ESPARGARO	Dry
▲ 2012: Tyres: Dunlop
2011	DE ANGELIS	Motobi	JIR Moto2	BRADL	MARQUEZ	DE ANGELIS	Dry
2010	DE ANGELIS	Motobi	JIR Moto2	REDDING	IANNONE	DE ANGELIS	Dry
▲ 2010: Tyres: Dunlop
2009250cc	SIMONCELLI	Gilera	Metis Gilera	BARBERA	DE ROSA	DE ROSA	Dry
2008250cc	SIMONCELLI	Gilera	Metis Gilera	BAUTISTA	KALLIO	SIMONCELLI	Dry
2007250cc	LORENZO	Aprilia	Fortuna Aprilia	BAUTISTA	DOVIZIOSO	LORENZO	Dry
2006250cc	LORENZO	Aprilia	Fortuna Aprilia	DE ANGELIS	AOYAMA	LORENZO	Dry
2005250cc	PEDROSA	Honda	Telefonica Movistar Honda 250cc	PORTO	LORENZO	STONER	Dry
2004250cc	PORTO	Aprilia		DE ANGELIS	POGGIALI	PORTO
2003250cc	ROLFO	Honda		WEST	NIETO	ELIAS
2002250cc	MELANDRI	Aprilia		NIETO	PORTO	NIETO
2001250cc	KATO	Honda		HARADA	ROLFO	HARADA
2000250cc	JACQUE	Yamaha*		NAKANO	KATO	NAKANO
— Layout changed from here —
1999250cc	ROSSI	Aprilia*		JACQUE	UKAWA	MCWILLIAMS
1998250cc	ROSSI	Aprilia*		CAPIROSSI	JACQUE	CAPIROSSI
1990250cc	KOCINSKI	Yamaha		BRADL	CADALORA	KOCINSKI
1989250cc	PONS	Honda		RUGGIA	CADALORA	RUGGIA

Highlighted rows: races won by a rider entered this year · Bike and team as entered in that race's official result · * the race's official result has no bike recorded; taken from the rider's other official results that season and class (one make only) · Manufacturers →

Manufacturers at this circuit (Moto2)

	Wins	Podiums	Best in last 5 years	Race top speed 2025
Kalex	7	24	1	305.2
Aprilia	6	19	—	—
Honda	4	11	—	—
KTM	3	7	1	—
Yamaha	2	8	—	—
Boscoscuro	2	3	1	306.9
Motobi	2	2	—	—
Gilera	2	2	—	—
Suter	0	6	—	—
Speed Up	0	2	4	—
Forward	0	0	17	300.1
MV Agusta	0	0	9	—
NTS	0	0	13	—

Spectator guide (getting there) →

Past results at Phillip Island (all of this year's riders)

Race finishes at this circuit (all classes) of every rider who raced in Moto2 this year. Colours show the class; vertical lines mark era changes (tyres, engines) and track layout versions

													Pirelli
Rider	Starts	Wins	Podiums	Avg	14	15	16	17	18	19	22	23	24	25
Senna Agius	2	1	2	2									3	1
Alonso Lopez	4	1	1	8					11	13	1	R	R	15
Tony Arbolino	4	1	1	8.7				18	R	9	R	1	8	17
Aron Canet	4		2	5.5			3	R	6	R	9	2	2	9
David Alonso	1		1	2								R	1	2
Daniel Holgado	1			4							R	13	2	4
Barry Baltus	4			6.5							R	R	7	6
Manuel Gonzalez	4			7.8							5	13	6	7
Sergio Garcia	2			9						R	3	R	9
Ayumu Sasaki	2			10				7	10	7	4	2	R	10
Adrian Huertas	1			11										11
Collin Veijer	1			12								4	18	12
Marcos Ramirez	4			12.3			7	21	R	2	17	10	10	R
Izan Guevara	3			12.7							1	6	16	16
Joe Roberts	5			13					18	16	R	5		13
Jorge Navarro	5			14	12	4	R	R	R	4	R			24
Filip Salac	3			14						R	R	R	14
Dennis Foggia	2			17					R	11	9	17	R
Mario Suryo Aji	2			17.5							R	R	15	20
Ivan Ortola	1			18							13	R	R	18
Celestino Vietti	3			19					3	R	R	R		19
Alex Escrig	3			19.7								19	17	23
Deniz Öncü	1			21							2	1	21
Daniel Muñoz	1			21										21
Zonta Van Den Goorbergh	3			22								R	R	22
Taiyo Furusato	—										R	7	7	8
Jose Antonio Rueda	—											18	9	1
Angel Piqueras	—												10	17
Luca Lunetta	—												8	7
Jacob Roulstone	—												13	R
Xabi Zurutuza	—												17
Alberto Ferrandez	—
Unai Orradre	—
Milan Pawelec	—

Moto3・125ccMoto2・250ccMotoGP・500ccR = DNF · DQ = Disqualified

Scope: official results DB 2014–2025, 28 races of this class tier at this circuit. Starts, wins, podiums and average count this class tier only