2026 Australian GP Moto2

A two-rider title fight where the leader has more to lose from a zero than to gain from a win

1. What a dropped result costsThe title chances come from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times. Today they stand at 63% for Manuel Gonzalez and 37% for Izan Guevara. A win at the Australian GP would lift Gonzalez to 79%, but a zero there would cut him to 41%. Losing 10 points anywhere in the remaining rounds drops him to 49%. For Guevara a zero next race means 19%, so for both riders a safe finish is worth more than a risky move.
2. The head-to-head on SundayIf Gonzalez finishes ahead of Guevara in Australia his chance rises to 76%; if he finishes behind him it falls to 47%. For Guevara the same split is 54% against 24%. Gonzalez has 5 race wins this season to Guevara's 4. The model gives Gonzalez 27% and Guevara 19% to win this race, and with both riders carrying a slightly stronger than usual record at this circuit, the track itself does not separate them.
3. Outsiders, weather and the zero riskIvan Ortola at 11% and Senna Agius at 9% are the likeliest riders to take the win away from the two contenders. An Ortola win barely changes the title picture, 62% to 38%, because both contenders lose the same ground. The weather is the bigger wildcard: a 29% rain probability with air at 15°C. This is a high-speed layout with a 900 m straight. The simulation gives Gonzalez a 10% chance of not finishing and Guevara 12%, which is where this championship could really turn.

In 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons the current leader does not take the title, a reminder that one wet lap or one inspired ride can tear up every percentage on this page.

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Berdasarkan analisis AI atas angka di database hasil resmi. Setiap angka sudah dicocokkan dengan database. Diperbarui 14 Okt 2026, 21.47 (waktu Jepang)