As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)
2026 · Title chances
Moto2 title chances
Calculated from the current standings and the sprints and races still to run. Pick finishing positions below and the standings change at once.
5 races left (0 sprints, 5 Grand Prix races): up to 125 points for one rider
What the next race can do (written from the numbers)
- The title cannot be settled at the Australian GP (4 rounds and up to 100 points remain after it).
- Race: if Izan Guevara scores at least 6 points more than Manuel Gonzalez, Izan Guevara takes the lead.
- At the Australian GP, whatever Ivan Ortola does, Manuel Gonzalez stays in the lead (Ivan Ortola can close at most 25 points).
- Race: if Izan Guevara wins and Manuel Gonzalez is 3th or lower, Izan Guevara takes the lead.
- Race: if Manuel Gonzalez finishes in the top 2, Manuel Gonzalez stays in the lead whatever Izan Guevara's result.
Standings
| # | Now | Max | After your picks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 Manuel Gonzalez | 265.5 | 390.5 | — |
| 2 | 28 Izan Guevara | 260 | 385 | — |
| 3 | 4 Ivan Ortola | 191.5 | 316.5 | — |
| 4 | 96 Daniel Holgado | 170 | 295 | — |
| 5 | 80 David Alonso | 166 | 291 | — |
| 6 | 81 Senna Agius | 165 | 290 | — |
| 7 | 12 Filip Salac | 153 | 278 | — |
| 8 | 13 Celestino Vietti Out | 133 | 258 | — |
Still able to win it on the numbers: Manuel Gonzalez、Izan Guevara、Ivan Ortola、Daniel Holgado、David Alonso、Senna Agius、Filip Salac
Title probability
We ran the rest of the season 10,000 times and counted the titles
| Now | Scores 0 at Australian GP | Wins at Australian GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Manuel Gonzalez | 63% | 41% | 79% |
| 28 Izan Guevara | 37% | 19% | 55% |
| 4 Ivan Ortola | <1% | 0% | <1% |
| Now | Scores 0 at Australian GP | Wins at Australian GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Manuel Gonzalez | 63% | 39% | 81% |
| 28 Izan Guevara | 37% | 17% | 58% |
Manuel GonzalezDaniel HolgadoIzan Guevara
Method: the remaining races were run 10,000 times. In each race we first draw a multiple crash (how often 2 or more riders retired on the same lap in past races, and how many; riders running close together are caught), then each rider's own crash (race and sprint separately, last 3 seasons, multiple crashes taken out), technical failure (per manufacturer this season) and other zero-point outcomes (this season, e.g. retirements with no reason in the official record). Riders still running draw a finishing position from their own results this season. Recent races get no extra weight. Injuries, bike changes and team tactics are not modelled.
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
By pace (written from the numbers)
- If Izan Guevara averages 4 in the remaining races (when finishing) and Manuel Gonzalez averages worse than 4.5, Izan Guevara overtakes Manuel Gonzalez for the title.
- Even if Izan Guevara wins every remaining race, Manuel Gonzalez keeps the title by averaging 1 or better.
- Averaging 5, Ivan Ortola cannot reach the title whatever Manuel Gonzalez does.
- Even if Ivan Ortola wins every remaining race, Manuel Gonzalez keeps the title by averaging 5.5 or better.
- Averaging 6, Daniel Holgado cannot reach the title whatever Manuel Gonzalez does.
- Even if Daniel Holgado wins every remaining race, Manuel Gonzalez keeps the title by averaging 10 or better.
Quick-look grids
| GONZALEZ↓ GUEVARA→ | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.5 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | 26.5 | 27.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 30.5 | |
| 2 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 25.5 | |
| 3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 21.5 | |
| 4 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 18.5 | |
| 5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | |
| 6 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | |
| 7 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | |
| 8 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | |
| 9 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | |
| 10 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | |
| 11 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | |
| 12 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | |
| 13 | 16.5 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | |
| 14 | 17.5 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | |
| 15 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | |
| NP | 19.5 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
Manuel Gonzalez ahead Izan Guevara ahead
Pick the finishing positions
A rider without a pick scores 0 in that race. The same position picked twice is marked in red
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
It has happened before (past title deciders)
Close to today (5 rounds left, about 5.5 points apart)
- 2006 250cc: after Czech GP, Jorge Lorenzo led Andrea Dovizioso by 7 with 5 rounds left → Jorge Lorenzo went on to win the title
- 2017 Moto2: after San Marino GP, Franco Morbidelli led Thomas Lüthi by 4 with 5 rounds left → Franco Morbidelli went on to win the title
- 2022 Moto2: after Aragon GP, Augusto Fernandez led Ai Ogura by 7 with 5 rounds left → Augusto Fernandez went on to win the title
Moto2: what it takes at the Australian GP
GONZALEZtitle chance now 63%
If GONZALEZ finishes ahead of GUEVARA in the next race, GONZALEZ's title chance becomes 76% (now 63%); with no points, 41%.
| win | 2nd–3rd | 4th–5th | 6th–15th | no points | ahead of GUEVARA | behind GUEVARA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 68% | 59% | 51% | 41% | 76% | 47% |
GUEVARAtitle chance now 37%
If GUEVARA finishes ahead of GONZALEZ in the next race, GUEVARA's title chance becomes 54% (now 37%); with no points, 19%.
| win | 2nd–3rd | 4th–5th | 6th–15th | no points | ahead of GONZALEZ | behind GONZALEZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 41% | 32% | 29% | 19% | 54% | 24% |
How much luck moves it: in 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's leader GONZALEZ does not win the title; in 1,226 the top 2 (GONZALEZ, GUEVARA) both score 0 in at least one race.
The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times; the share of titles counted separately for each result in the next race (sprint results not split).
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Try your own picks in the simulator →
Past title deciders
Lead lost late to a zero (crash / technical) (1)
- 2022 Moto2: Augusto Fernandez 271.5, Ai Ogura 242 (29.5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP — at the Malaysian GP, Ai Ogura scored 0 (Crash) and lost the lead (1 rounds left)
The top 2 both scored 0 in the same race (1)
- 2022 Moto2: Augusto Fernandez 271.5, Ai Ogura 242 (29.5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP — at the Americas GP, leader Celestino Vietti (Crash) and 2nd Aron Canet (Crash) both scored 0 (16 rounds left)
Settled at the final round (9)
- 2025 Moto2: Diogo Moreira 287, Manuel Gonzalez 257 (30 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2022 Moto2: Augusto Fernandez 271.5, Ai Ogura 242 (29.5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2021 Moto2: Remy Gardner 311, Raul Fernandez 307 (4 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2020 Moto2: Enea Bastianini 205, Luca Marini 196 (9 apart). Settled: Portuguese GP
- 2011 Moto2: Stefan Bradl 274, Marc Marquez 251 (23 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2009 250cc: Hiroshi Aoyama 261, Hector Barbera 239 (22 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2006 250cc: Jorge Lorenzo 289, Andrea Dovizioso 272 (17 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2003 250cc: Manuel Poggiali 249, Roberto Rolfo 235 (14 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 1951 250cc: Bruno Ruffo 18, Gianni Leoni 10 (8 apart). Settled: NATIONS GRAND PRIX
Closest finishes (4)
- 2019 Moto2: Alex Marquez 262, Brad Binder 259 (3 apart). Settled: Malaysian GP
- 2021 Moto2: Remy Gardner 311, Raul Fernandez 307 (4 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 1951 250cc: Bruno Ruffo 18, Gianni Leoni 10 (8 apart). Settled: NATIONS GRAND PRIX
- 2020 Moto2: Enea Bastianini 205, Luca Marini 196 (9 apart). Settled: Portuguese GP
Scope: 81 seasons (1950–2025) where the points added up race by race match the official final standings of the top two. Seasons that do not match (missing races, dropped-score rules) are left out
On equal points: most race wins, then most 2nd places, and so on (MotoGP sprints not counted); still level, the one who achieved their highest place most recently (FIM Grand Prix regulations art. 1.28.7, 2026) How points work →
Source: 2026 official results DB (17 races run, Oct 15, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC). Remaining races count full points (half points for shortened races are not predicted)