As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)
2026 · Title chances
MotoGP title chances
Calculated from the current standings and the sprints and races still to run. Pick finishing positions below and the standings change at once.
10 races left (5 sprints, 5 Grand Prix races): up to 185 points for one rider
What the next race can do (written from the numbers)
- The title cannot be settled at the Australian GP (4 rounds and up to 148 points remain after it).
- Weekend total: if Marc Marquez scores at least 2 points more than Jorge Martin, Marc Marquez takes the lead; level on points, Marc Marquez is ahead on race wins (now 6 to 1).
- If Marc Marquez wins both the sprint and the race, Marc Marquez takes the lead whatever Jorge Martin's results.
- At the Australian GP, whatever Marco Bezzecchi does, Jorge Martin stays in the lead (Marco Bezzecchi can close at most 37 points).
- Sprint: if Marc Marquez finishes ahead of Jorge Martin and in the top 2, Marc Marquez takes the lead.
- Race (if the sprint leaves the gap unchanged): if Marc Marquez finishes ahead of Jorge Martin and in the top 4, Marc Marquez takes the lead.
Race conditions are rewritten automatically once the sprint result is in
Standings
| # | Now | Max | After your picks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 89 Jorge Martin | 355 | 540 | — |
| 2 | 93 Marc Marquez | 353 | 538 | — |
| 3 | 72 Marco Bezzecchi | 309 | 494 | — |
| 4 | 79 Ai Ogura | 259 | 444 | — |
| 5 | 37 Pedro Acosta | 258 | 443 | — |
| 6 | 49 Fabio Di Giannantonio | 245 | 430 | — |
| 7 | 25 Raul Fernandez | 236 | 421 | — |
| 8 | 73 Alex Marquez | 172 | 357 | — |
Still able to win it on the numbers: Jorge Martin、Marc Marquez、Marco Bezzecchi、Ai Ogura、Pedro Acosta、Fabio Di Giannantonio、Raul Fernandez、Alex Marquez
Title probability
We ran the rest of the season 10,000 times and counted the titles
| Now | Scores 0 at Australian GP | Wins at Australian GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 Marc Marquez | 69% | 38% | 87% |
| 89 Jorge Martin | 28% | 11% | 57% |
| 72 Marco Bezzecchi | 2% | <1% | 8% |
| Now | Scores 0 at Australian GP | Wins at Australian GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 Marc Marquez | 67% | 32% | 88% |
| 89 Jorge Martin | 32% | 10% | 64% |
| 72 Marco Bezzecchi | 1% | <1% | 6% |
Jorge MartinMarco BezzecchiMarc Marquez
Method: the remaining races were run 10,000 times. In each race we first draw a multiple crash (how often 2 or more riders retired on the same lap in past races, and how many; riders running close together are caught), then each rider's own crash (race and sprint separately, last 3 seasons, multiple crashes taken out), technical failure (per manufacturer this season) and other zero-point outcomes (this season, e.g. retirements with no reason in the official record). Riders still running draw a finishing position from their own results this season. Recent races get no extra weight. Injuries, bike changes and team tactics are not modelled.
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
By pace (written from the numbers)
- If Marc Marquez averages 3.5 in the remaining races (when finishing) and Jorge Martin averages worse than 3.5, Marc Marquez overtakes Jorge Martin for the title.
- Even if Marc Marquez wins every remaining race, Jorge Martin keeps the title by averaging 1 or better.
- If Marco Bezzecchi averages 2 in the remaining races (when finishing) and Jorge Martin averages worse than 3.5, Marco Bezzecchi overtakes Jorge Martin for the title.
- Even if Marco Bezzecchi wins every remaining race, Jorge Martin keeps the title by averaging 2 or better.
- Averaging 4, Ai Ogura cannot reach the title whatever Jorge Martin does.
- Even if Ai Ogura wins every remaining race, Jorge Martin keeps the title by averaging 4 or better.
Quick-look grids
The race grid uses the current gap and is rebuilt once the sprint result is in
| MARTIN↓ MARQUEZ→ | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | NP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |
| 3 | 3 | = | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| 5 | 5 | 2 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | |
| NP | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 2 |
Jorge Martin ahead Marc Marquez ahead
| MARTIN↓ MARQUEZ→ | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | |
| 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | |
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
| 5 | 12 | 7 | 3 | = | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |
| 6 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| 7 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | |
| 8 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| 9 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| 10 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| 11 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| 12 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| 13 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| 14 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 15 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 3 | |
| NP | 23 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | = | 1 | 2 |
Jorge Martin ahead Marc Marquez ahead
Pick the finishing positions
A rider without a pick scores 0 in that race. The same position picked twice is marked in red
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
It has happened before (past title deciders)
Close to today (5 rounds left, about 2 points apart)
- 2017 MotoGP: after San Marino GP, Marc Marquez and Andrea Dovizioso level on points with 5 rounds left → Marc Marquez went on to win the title
- 2020 MotoGP: after French GP, Fabio Quartararo led Joan Mir by 10 with 5 rounds left → Joan Mir won the title
- 2022 MotoGP: after Aragon GP, Fabio Quartararo led Francesco Bagnaia by 10 with 5 rounds left → Francesco Bagnaia won the title
MotoGP: what it takes at the Australian GP
MARQUEZtitle chance now 69%
If MARQUEZ finishes ahead of MARTIN in the next race, MARQUEZ's title chance becomes 81% (now 69%); with no points, 49%.
| win | 2nd–3rd | 4th–5th | 6th–15th | no points | ahead of MARTIN | behind MARTIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 77% | 66% | 60% | 49% | 81% | 55% |
MARTINtitle chance now 28%
If MARTIN finishes ahead of MARQUEZ in the next race, MARTIN's title chance becomes 43% (now 28%); with no points, 14%.
| win | 2nd–3rd | 4th–5th | 6th–15th | no points | ahead of MARQUEZ | behind MARQUEZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | 35% | 26% | 21% | 14% | 43% | 18% |
How much luck moves it: in 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's leader MARTIN does not win the title; in 1,196 the top 2 (MARTIN, MARQUEZ) both score 0 in at least one race.
The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times; the share of titles counted separately for each result in the next race (sprint results not split).
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Try your own picks in the simulator →
Past title deciders
Turned around at the final round (2)
- 2015 MotoGP: Jorge Lorenzo 330, Valentino Rossi 325 (5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP — Before the final round Valentino Rossi led by 7
- 2006 MotoGP: Nicky Hayden 252, Valentino Rossi 247 (5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP — Before the final round Valentino Rossi led by 8
Lead lost late to a zero (crash / technical) (1)
- 2022 MotoGP: Francesco Bagnaia 265, Fabio Quartararo 248 (17 apart). Settled: Valencia GP — at the Australian GP, Fabio Quartararo scored 0 (Crash) and lost the lead (2 rounds left)
Settled at the final round (8)
- 2024 MotoGP: Jorge Martin 508, Francesco Bagnaia 498 (10 apart). Settled: SOLIDARITY GRAND PRIX OF BARCELONA
- 2023 MotoGP: Francesco Bagnaia 467, Jorge Martin 428 (39 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2022 MotoGP: Francesco Bagnaia 265, Fabio Quartararo 248 (17 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2017 MotoGP: Marc Marquez 298, Andrea Dovizioso 261 (37 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2015 MotoGP: Jorge Lorenzo 330, Valentino Rossi 325 (5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2013 MotoGP: Marc Marquez 334, Jorge Lorenzo 330 (4 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2006 MotoGP: Nicky Hayden 252, Valentino Rossi 247 (5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 1957 500cc: Libero Liberati 32, Bob Mcintyre 20 (12 apart). Settled: NATIONS GRAND PRIX
Closest finishes (3)
- 2013 MotoGP: Marc Marquez 334, Jorge Lorenzo 330 (4 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2015 MotoGP: Jorge Lorenzo 330, Valentino Rossi 325 (5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
- 2006 MotoGP: Nicky Hayden 252, Valentino Rossi 247 (5 apart). Settled: Valencia GP
Scope: 81 seasons (1950–2025) where the points added up race by race match the official final standings of the top two. Seasons that do not match (missing races, dropped-score rules) are left out
On equal points: most race wins, then most 2nd places, and so on (MotoGP sprints not counted); still level, the one who achieved their highest place most recently (FIM Grand Prix regulations art. 1.28.7, 2026) How points work →
Source: 2026 official results DB (17 races run, Oct 15, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC). Remaining races count full points (half points for shortened races are not predicted)