As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)
Moto2 · Next race: key points
A two-rider title fight where the leader has more to lose from a zero than to gain from a win
- What a dropped result costs The title chances come from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times. Today they stand at 63% for Manuel Gonzalez and 37% for Izan Guevara. A win at the Australian GP would lift Gonzalez to 79%, but a zero there would cut him to 41%. Losing 10 points anywhere in the remaining rounds drops him to 49%. For Guevara a zero next race means 19%, so for both riders a safe finish is worth more than a risky move.
- The head-to-head on Sunday If Gonzalez finishes ahead of Guevara in Australia his chance rises to 76%; if he finishes behind him it falls to 47%. For Guevara the same split is 54% against 24%. Gonzalez has 5 race wins this season to Guevara's 4. The model gives Gonzalez 27% and Guevara 19% to win this race, and with both riders carrying a slightly stronger than usual record at this circuit, the track itself does not separate them.
- Outsiders, weather and the zero risk Ivan Ortola at 11% and Senna Agius at 9% are the likeliest riders to take the win away from the two contenders. An Ortola win barely changes the title picture, 62% to 38%, because both contenders lose the same ground. The weather is the bigger wildcard: a 29% rain probability with air at 15°C. This is a high-speed layout with a 900 m straight. The simulation gives Gonzalez a 10% chance of not finishing and Guevara 12%, which is where this championship could really turn.
In 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons the current leader does not take the title, a reminder that one wet lap or one inspired ride can tear up every percentage on this page.
From the editors
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:47 PM (Japan time)