As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)
Moto2 · Commentary after round 17, Indonesian GP
A second-half surge has cut the Moto2 title gap to 5.5 points
- Five rounds remain (the Qatar GP is still uncertain), and 125 points are available to any one rider.
- On the numbers 7 riders can still win the title, but the real fight is between 2: Manuel Gonzalez and Izan Guevara.
- A simulation of the remaining races (10,000 runs from this season's results) gives Gonzalez a 63% chance of the title. In 3,713 of those simulated seasons today's leader does not win.
Manuel Gonzalez Manuel Gonzalez built his lead in the first half of the season, scoring 154.5 points against 111 in the second half. His rate has slipped from 19.3 to 12.3 points per round. He still has the most race wins among the top six, 5, and has finished all 17 races.
Izan Guevara Izan Guevara's second half decided his position: 155 points after 105 in the first half. His scoring rose from 13.1 to 17.2 points per round. A deficit that stood at 57.5 points after the Dutch GP is now 5.5. The simulation gives him 37%, backed by points in all 17 races.
Numbers like these only describe the season so far; luck and the two riders themselves will decide whether any of them hold up over the final five rounds.
Title chances at this point (top 3)
Manuel Gonzalez 63% · Izan Guevara 37%
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
What happened next (points at the next round → total)
The next round has not been raced yet.
Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:43 PM (Japan time)