As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)
MotoGP · Next race: key points
A two-point lead the simulations don't trust, so every dropped result now counts double
- The cost of one bad weekend Jorge Martin leads Marc Marquez by 2 points, but the 10,000 simulated runs of the rest of the season from this year's results favour Marquez. They give him a 69% title chance against Martin's 28%. If Marquez loses 10 points anywhere his chance slips to 57%. The same loss would take Martin down to 19%, so a safe finish may be worth more than a gamble for either rider.
- What each contender needs on Sunday The head-to-head is what matters most: Marquez finishing ahead of Martin lifts his chance to 81%, while finishing behind him leaves it at 55%. Martin beating Marquez would move him only to 43%, and a win on Sunday would bring him to 51%, so he needs the biggest results, not just a good one. Marquez has 6 race wins this season to Martin's 1. Martin's no-finish chance in the race is 20% against Marquez's 11%.
- Marquez's record here and a third man in the mix Marquez has finished 0.84 places better than his usual level over 6 races at this circuit, while Martin's record here is at his normal level. Marco Bezzecchi has a 28% chance of winning the Australian GP against Marquez's 30%. A Bezzecchi win would leave the title picture at 66% for Marquez and 29% for Martin. Rain probability is 39% for the sprint and 31% for the race, so the weather could reshuffle all of this on a high-speed layout.
In 7,152 of the 10,000 simulated seasons the current points leader does not win, which is a reminder that a wet track, a first-lap tangle or a rider's inspired weekend can tear up every one of these percentages.
From the editors
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 18, 2026, 10:04 AM (Japan time)