As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)
MotoGP · Next race: key points
A level scoreboard where the chaser, not the leader, holds the stronger hand
- Why a dropped result now hurts so much Marc Marquez trails by just 2 points yet carries a 69% title chance. That comes from simulating the rest of the season 10,000 times on this year's results. Dropping 10 points anywhere in the run-in cuts that to 57%. A zero at the Australian GP would leave him at 32%, so a sure finish may be worth more than a risky win. Jorge Martin leads, yet the same simulations give him only 28%. Lose 10 points and that falls to 19%. Luck still weighs heavily: in 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's points leader does not take the title.
- What each man needs at the Australian GP If Marc Marquez finishes ahead of Jorge Martin in the race his chance rises to 81%, and even finishing behind him keeps it at 55%. For Martin the picture is sharper: a win lifts him to 51%, but a podium behind his rival only gets him to 35%, so he needs results his main rival cannot match. The risk side is uneven too, with a no-finish chance of 20% for Martin against 11% for Marquez. Marquez also tends to finish above his usual level across 6 races here.
- A second winner in the mix and a cool, possibly wet weekend Marco Bezzecchi has a 28% win chance, close to the 30% of Marc Marquez. His 64% podium chance is backed by 5 wins this season. Among the manufacturers, Aprilia has the best average finish over the last 5 races at 4.9. Ducati is next at 7.7. A Bezzecchi win changes the title picture only slightly, to 66% for Marquez and 29% for Martin. Rain sits at 26% for the race with air at 15°C, a variable that favours no one in particular.
Simulations count patterns, not the one lap in cold air or the one tyre choice that can rewrite everything, and in the end it is the riders themselves who decide which of these numbers survive Sunday.
From the editors
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB. Every number has been checked against the DB. Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:45 PM (Japan time)