As of round 17 Race · updated 10/13/2026, 07:18 PM (Japan time)

Moto2 2026 standings

AI commentary and outlook

A second-half surge has cut the Moto2 title gap to 5.5 points

Five rounds remain (the Qatar GP is still uncertain), and 125 points are available to any one rider.
On the numbers 7 riders can still win the title, but the real fight is between 2: Manuel Gonzalez and Izan Guevara.
A simulation of the remaining races (10,000 runs from this season's results) gives Gonzalez a 63% chance of the title. In 3,713 of those simulated seasons today's leader does not win.

GONZALEZtitle chance 63%

Manuel Gonzalez built his lead in the first half of the season, scoring 154.5 points against 111 in the second half. His rate has slipped from 19.3 to 12.3 points per round. He still has the most race wins among the top six, 5, and has finished all 17 races.

GUEVARAtitle chance 37%

Izan Guevara's second half decided his position: 155 points after 105 in the first half. His scoring rose from 13.1 to 17.2 points per round. A deficit that stood at 57.5 points after the Dutch GP is now 5.5. The simulation gives him 37%, backed by points in all 17 races.

Numbers like these only describe the season so far; luck and the two riders themselves will decide whether any of them hold up over the final five rounds.

More detail (numbers for the top 6)

	GONZALEZ	GUEVARA	ORTOLA	HOLGADO	ALONSO	AGIUS
Position · points	P1 265.5 pts	P2 260 pts	P3 191.5 pts	P4 170 pts	P5 166 pts	P6 165 pts
Race wins / podiums	5 / 10	4 / 9	2 / 4	1 / 5	1 / 4	2 / 4
Zero-point races (reason)	0	0	crash 1 · technical 1	crash 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 1	crash 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 1	crash 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 1
Average race finish (when finishing)	4.6	3.8	5	5.9	6.4	7.7
Rounds missed	–	–	–	–	17 (est. 11 pts)	–
Points 1st half / 2nd half	154.5 / 111	105 / 155	52.5 / 139	76 / 94	71 / 95	94 / 71
Rounds as leader	16	0	0	1	0	0
Furthest behind the leader	4.5 pts (after round 2)	57.5 pts (after round 10)	102 pts (after round 8)	99.5 pts (after round 15)	99.5 pts (after round 17)	100.5 pts (after round 17)
Longest run of scoring races	15	17	9	8	5	9

Numbers shown straight from the DB (not through AI). Zero-point reasons as recorded in the official lap analysis. Estimated points for missed rounds = average of the 3 rounds started before the absence x rounds missed.

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

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Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB; every number in the text is checked against the DB. Reasons for absences and retirements only where officially recorded. Rewritten after every sprint and race (as of Oct 14, 2026)

Moto2: what it takes at the Australian GP

GONZALEZtitle chance now 63%
If GONZALEZ finishes ahead of GUEVARA in the next race, GONZALEZ's title chance becomes 76% (now 63%); with no points, 41%.

win	2nd–3rd	4th–5th	6th–15th	no points	ahead of GUEVARA	behind GUEVARA
79%	68%	59%	51%	41%	76%	47%

GUEVARAtitle chance now 37%
If GUEVARA finishes ahead of GONZALEZ in the next race, GUEVARA's title chance becomes 54% (now 37%); with no points, 19%.

win	2nd–3rd	4th–5th	6th–15th	no points	ahead of GONZALEZ	behind GONZALEZ
57%	41%	32%	29%	19%	54%	24%

How much luck moves it: in 3,713 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's leader GONZALEZ does not win the title; in 1,226 the top 2 (GONZALEZ, GUEVARA) both score 0 in at least one race.

The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times; the share of titles counted separately for each result in the next race (sprint results not split).

An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions

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Points behind the leader after each round (top 6)

The 0 line is whoever led at the time; lower means further behind. Race and sprint points added up round by round

#			Points	Behind leader	To next	Wins	Podiums
1	Manuel Gonzalez	LIQUI MOLY Dynavolt Intact GP	265.5	—	—	5	10
2	Izan Guevara	BLU CRU Pramac Yamaha Moto2	260	−5.5	−5.5	4	9
3	Ivan Ortola	QJMOTOR - PONT GRUP - MSI	191.5	−74	−68.5	2	4
4	Daniel Holgado	CFMOTO Inde Aspar Team	170	−95.5	−21.5	1	5
5	David Alonso	CFMOTO Inde Aspar Team	166	−99.5	−4	1	4
6	Senna Agius	LIQUI MOLY Dynavolt Intact GP	165	−100.5	−1	2	4
7	Filip Salac	OnlyFans American Racing Team	153	−112.5	−12	1	5
8	Celestino Vietti	SYNC Group SpeedRS Team	133	−132.5	−20	0	3
9	Alonso Lopez	ITALJET Gresini Moto2	125.5	−140	−7.5	1	1
10	Daniel Muñoz	Italtrans Racing Team	83	−182.5	−42.5	0	1
11	Tony Arbolino	REDS Fantic Racing	82.5	−183	−0.5	0	1
12	Collin Veijer	Red Bull KTM Ajo	80.5	−185	−2	0	2
13	Alex Escrig	KLINT Racing Team	63	−202.5	−17.5	0	1
14	Barry Baltus	REDS Fantic Racing	60	−205.5	−3	0	1
15	Deniz Öncü	ELF Marc VDS Racing Team	47.5	−218	−12.5	0	0
16	Joe Roberts	OnlyFans American Racing Team	44	−221.5	−3.5	0	0
17	Jose Antonio Rueda	Red Bull KTM Ajo	43	−222.5	−1	0	0
18	Adrian Huertas	Italtrans Racing Team	42	−223.5	−1	0	0
19	Luca Lunetta	SYNC Group SpeedRS Team	27	−238.5	−15	0	0
20	Ayumu Sasaki	Momoven Idrofoglia RW Racing Team	24	−241.5	−3	0	0
21	Alberto Ferrandez	BLU CRU Pramac Yamaha Moto2	17.5	−248	−6.5	0	0
22	Aron Canet	ELF Marc VDS Racing Team	17.5	−248	=	0	0
23	Taiyo Furusato	Idemitsu Honda Team Asia	17	−248.5	−0.5	0	0
24	Zonta Van Den Goorbergh	Momoven Idrofoglia RW Racing Team	14	−251.5	−3	0	0
25	Sergio Garcia	ITALJET Gresini Moto2	11	−254.5	−3	0	0
26	Angel Piqueras	QJMOTOR - PONT GRUP - MSI	4	−261.5	−7	0	0
27	Mario Suryo Aji	Idemitsu Honda Team Asia	3	−262.5	−1	0	0
28	Marcos Ramirez	KLINT Racing Team	0	−265.5	−3	0	0
29	Xabi Zurutuza	KLINT Racing Team	0	−265.5	=	0	0
30	Unai Orradre	QJMOTOR - PONT GRUP - MSI	0	−265.5	=	0	0
31	Jorge Navarro	REDS Fantic Racing	0	−265.5	=	0	0
32	Dennis Foggia	SYNC Group SpeedRS Team	0	−265.5	=	0	0
33	Jacob Roulstone	Idemitsu Honda Team Asia	0	−265.5	=	0	0
34	Milan Pawelec	Red Bull KTM Ajo	0	−265.5	=	0	0

Source: official results DB | As of Oct 13, 2026