AI commentary and outlook
A second-half surge has turned a 102-point deficit into a two-rider fight with almost nothing between them
- Five rounds remain, starting with the Australian GP, and the Qatar GP is still listed as uncertain.
- On the numbers 8 riders can still take the title, but the real fight is between 2 of them.
- Title chances come from a simulation of the remaining races, 10,000 runs from this season's results. It gives Marc Marquez 69% and Jorge Martin 28%. The order flips from the standings mainly because of the zero-point chance per sprint, 6% against 14%. In 7,152 of 10,000 simulated seasons today's points leader does not win.
Marc Marquez's position comes from the second half of the season: 108 points in the first half against 245 in the second. That is 13.5 points per round before the halfway mark and 27.2 after it. The run brought him from 102 points behind after the Italian GP to 2 behind now. His 6 race wins are the most of the leading group, with 8 sprint wins on top.
Jorge Martin leads with just 1 race win, built instead on 9 race podiums and steady scoring. Two zero-point races, one a crash and one with no reason given in the official record, cost him an estimated 32 points. That estimate takes his average race points when finishing, 16.2, multiplied by the zero-point races. His longest run of scoring races is 9, and he has led the standings for 8 rounds.
None of these percentages are settled: luck on any given weekend and the riders themselves can still overturn every one of them.
More detail (numbers for the top 6)
| MARTIN | MARQUEZ | BEZZECCHI | OGURA | ACOSTA | DI GIANNANTONIO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Position · points | P1 355 pts | P2 353 pts | P3 309 pts | P4 259 pts | P5 258 pts | P6 245 pts |
| Race wins / podiums | 1 / 9 | 6 / 6 | 5 / 11 | 1 / 4 | 1 / 6 | 1 / 3 |
| Sprint wins / podiums | 4 / 8 | 8 / 11 | 0 / 6 | 0 / 4 | 1 / 3 | 0 / 6 |
| Points from races / sprints | 243 / 112 | 222 / 131 | 242 / 67 | 184 / 75 | 197 / 61 | 177 / 68 |
| Zero-point races (reason) | crash 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 1 | crash 1 · technical 1 | crash 3 | crash 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 1 | crash 1 · technical 1 · retired (no reason in the official record) 1 | crash 1 |
| Sprint non-finishes | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Average race finish (when finishing) | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 6.3 |
| Rounds missed | – | 6 (est. 8 pts) | 11 (est. 4 pts) | 13, 14 (est. 46 pts) | – | – |
| Points 1st half / 2nd half | 160 / 195 | 108 / 245 | 180 / 129 | 105 / 154 | 132 / 126 | 138 / 107 |
| Rounds as leader | 8 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Furthest behind the leader | 20 pts (after round 8) | 102 pts (after round 7) | 49 pts (after round 16) | 96 pts (after round 16) | 97 pts (after round 17) | 110 pts (after round 17) |
| Longest run of scoring races | 9 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
Numbers shown straight from the DB (not through AI). Zero-point reasons as recorded in the official lap analysis. Estimated points for missed rounds = average of the 3 rounds started before the absence x rounds missed.
An estimate calculated from past data. It does not predict race results with certainty. About our predictions
Written by AI (Claude) from the numbers in the official results DB; every number in the text is checked against the DB. Reasons for absences and retirements only where officially recorded. Rewritten after every sprint and race (as of Oct 14, 2026)
